Thanks in advance for the help as always..
Correlated Teasers
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jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#1Correlated TeasersTags: None -
GarbageManSBR Sharp
- 11-28-10
- 484
#2correlated parlays>>>>>>correlated teasersComment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#3Yesterday I wanted to tease Tennessee +36 and over 40...I was not able to do this at any of my books...the bet ended up not winning but it got me to thinking . Does anyone know how to exploit teasers like this? I assume that they are +ev if books don't allow this..Comment -
ThaddeusBSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-10-10
- 8874
#4
Books block them because they know the associated parlays are +EV and they have a poor understanding of teaser value in general.Comment -
BsimsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-03-09
- 827
#5I tried betting a NHL parlay with Florida and under this morning at 5dimes and it was rejected. I've made this type of bet many times in the past. Is this a new policy?Comment -
SnatchSBR Hustler
- 06-10-11
- 66
#6Thad - not if the dog Spread is >35% of the Total - it's correlated.Comment -
laxbrah420SBR High Roller
- 10-29-10
- 210
#7First, backing +36 and over is negatively correlated. You want dog/under or favorite/over to be positively correlated. Now, to answer the Q: there are almost no spots where blind betting correlated teasers is +EV. The problem is that you'll be buying a bunch of relatively worthless numbers on both the total and the spread (higher spread=more variance=each point is worth less). The value wasted on teasing is greater than the value gained on the correlation (unless the total/spread are EXTREMELY correlated.)
Books block them because they know the associated parlays are +EV and they have a poor understanding of teaser value in general.Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#8Im pretty sure books wouldn't allow that would they?Comment -
FratsSBR High Roller
- 09-07-11
- 153
#9What good would one win possibly do you? Just think about your example. If you had a team at +36 and put it with the under, the only possible scores that could hurt you are between 36-40 to 0-4. It's almost impossible for the favorite and under to hit. Those events are directly coorelated, if the under hits then the underdog is going to hit over 95% of the time.Comment -
laxbrah420SBR High Roller
- 10-29-10
- 210
#10when i said 10 team i meant 10 point, because i'm dumb.
also im dumb. thanksComment -
BsimsSBR Wise Guy
- 02-03-09
- 827
#11I tried betting a NHL parlay with Florida and under this morning at 5dimes and it was rejected. I've made this type of bet many times in the past. Is this a new policy?Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#13So when parlaying totals and sides at greater than 35%, is it smart to take both the dog / under and the fav / over?Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#16I don't think there are any legitimate books that will take those wagers...dangComment -
mm9182SBR Rookie
- 09-01-11
- 20
#17you should take both dog/under and fav/over?..slightly confused but are there any statistics showing when the dog/under or fav/over hit in relation to being home away? what im trying to get at is..doesnt it make more sense to take one side and not both?Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#18Comment -
LT ProfitsSBR Aristocracy
- 10-27-06
- 90963
#20Since the parlays are correlated, one parlay or the other should hit over 30% of the time. So if you play both the fav/over and dog/under combos in, say, 5 games (10 combos), 3 of them should win which is +EV at +260 odds (even better at true odds).
Comment -
jolmscheidRestricted User
- 02-20-10
- 3256
#21Shoot...correlated parlays are really where its at...thanks for the insight LT and Holli
.Comment
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