Odds to win a tournament (need help)

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  • ebemiss
    Restricted User
    • 05-09-11
    • 364

    #1
    Odds to win a tournament (need help)
    Maybe I'm on vapor lock, I'm not sure. But how do I get projected odds for winning a 4 or 8 team tournament?

    Here's a sample 4 game set up with A vs B, C vs D and their chances of winning those games.

    A .56
    B .44
    C .94
    D .06

    I converted a projected spread to odds using the NORMDIST function on excel. Team A would play team C in the championship with team C having a .61 to .39 edge over team A converting a spread to win pct.

    My question is how do I go about getting odds for each team to win the tourney before it starts.

    I have 4 separate 8 team tournaments I'd like to do this for based on High School teams locally, I'm just having a hard time getting the numbers to add up to 100% at the end. Any help is appreciated.

    I have all the projected spreads for each game, and can give a winning pct for each game, but how I do I put it all together. Thanks
  • donjuan
    SBR MVP
    • 08-29-07
    • 3993

    #2
    You need to know each teams odds against each other. So far you have

    A vs. B= .56
    A vs. C = .39
    C vs. D = .06

    You'll also need to know A vs. D to know A's chance of winning. Let's assume they are .9 against D.

    To know their chance of winning both games, you just multiply the two together. But you need to know their odds in the championship which will be weighted by C and D's respective chances of getting there which based on our assumptions would be:

    .94*.39+.06*.9

    Multiply that result by the .56 they were to win their first game and you get their chance of winning the tournament.
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    • ebemiss
      Restricted User
      • 05-09-11
      • 364

      #3
      Ok here are the actual pct's for each team vs the others.

      A vs B-0.565528 C-0.312067 D-0.871213


      B vs A-0.434472 C-0.279514 D-0.850332


      C vs D-0.939515 A-0.687933 B-0.720486


      D vs C-0.060485 A-0.128787 B-0.149668


      So for Team A odds (using the numbers above) it would be:

      .939*.312+.06*.87=.345 * .56 (original)=.19 or 19% chance to win. Is that correct? thanks
      Comment
      • ebemiss
        Restricted User
        • 05-09-11
        • 364

        #4
        The math worked out for the 4 team. Here's the 8 team. How would my formula work for team A for instance? Format is 1st round A VS B, C VS D, E VS F, G VS H.

        I attached the excel sheet, if you wouldn't mind taking a look. thanks again
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