1. 11-08-10 10:47 PM #1
    rfr3sh
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    Need Help Calculating This

    How do you calculate if a teaser is +EV
    lets say I find a subset that wins SU 76% of the time (IE. Home teams favoured by 6-8 for example)
    currently at my book I have to bet 3 teamers at -120 (special teasers)
    I do not think they are at these odds, however how does one go about calculating the fair price for the teaser
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  2. 11-08-10 11:08 PM #2
    sharpcat
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    (.817) * (.817) * (.817)= .5453

    At -120 on a 3 teamer you would need each leg to cover 81.7% or better to profit.

    (win probability) * ( win probability) * (win probability)= Probability of winning
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  3. 11-08-10 11:20 PM #3
    rfr3sh
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    thanks
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  4. 11-08-10 11:36 PM #4
    Johnpoints
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    Quote Originally Posted by sharpcat View Post
    (.817) * (.817) * (.817)= .5453 At -120 on a 3 teamer you would need each leg to cover 81.7% or better to profit. (win probability) * ( win probability) * (win probability)= Probability of winning
    You have the perfect screen name.
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