Are they moving on air?

[Leo Bello]

I just read some threads asking when books lay off, etc., and I was really impressed by the answers of Podonne, Arwar, and Pokernut and others; and there is a question that still stymies me no matter what books I read.

I've been dealing with more locals this year. I read respected publications that state that CRIS and Pinnacle are the only ones who book the old-fashioned way. They create their numbers and move only on action. Most of the others (and, of course, locals) 'move on air.'

So what gives? Say we have CRIS or Pinny, they made their numbers, made their moves, and now we have a local who on Thursday gives me his line. Let's say we have Pitt opens -3½ over West Virginia. The public or a 'sharp' bets it heavy and CRIS and Pinny have moved to -4½. By this time, every odds board has moved to the 4½. What is the correct mathematical number for a local to start at? Obviously, if he uses 4½ he moved 1 full point 'on air.' But if he doesn't, then it seems he's behind the curve. CRIS and Pinny have the advantage of writing many tickets at -3½, at -4, and at 4½, while the locals copying the 4½ seem to be 'gambling' that the 4½ is correct, even though they have written nothing at the other numbers.

This is driving me nuts! Please, please give me a little direction here and break this down for me, i.e., what should the opening number be, is it a moot point, etc. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!

[Duff85]

In any major sport the closer is a better judge of the true line than the opener. The vast majority of people who say otherwise are squares who lose their money.

So in no way is it a gamble to put up the current number, please find me a book that deals stale openers... oh and why does this matter?

[Leo Bello]

In any major sport the closer is a better judge of the true line than the opener. The vast majority of people who say otherwise are squares who lose their money.

So in no way is it a gamble to put up the current number, please find me a book that deals stale openers... oh and why does this matter?

First of all, thanks for replying to me. I appreciate it. I myself read some questions that seem absolutely stupid to me, but we have to have the humility to understand that for some reason that person does not know the answer or he would not be asking it.

I asked this question because I know a few locals, some very well, others not, and last week I ate lunch and we got talking and I asked one of them what determines the opening number he might put out when they open football on a Thursday night. I received more questions than answers. It seemed to me they merely copied what they saw everyone else using and disregarding the opening number.

I would have accepted this answer were it not for a very good book I read written by Scotty Schettler, former sports book supervisor at the Stardust Race and Sports Book for 10+ years entitled, "We Were Wiseguys And Didn't Know It." He is an industry legend not some bullship artist. During his tenure there the Stardust was the place to bet, and all the important wiseguys waited in lottery form for the Dust's opening numbers on Sunday night. They would put up their virgin numbers, let the people bet into them by predeterined lottery fashion (because everyone wanted to be first to attack these numbers, and it sometimes led to fights, so everyone got a place in line and a limit--end of problem).
Now this is what led to my question. He explained it this way (and I will try to paraphrase).

"Our job was to write business. If we put up a number of 5½ and wrote business which required us to raise it to 6 or 6½, if the public or anyone else took the 6½, at least we had opposing business to offset that play--essentially 2-way action. We had a reason the number moved higher. When we released the numbers to the general public late Sunday night, if the other sportsbooks or services copied our number of 6½, they were essentially 'gambling,' because they had no other business to offset that number."

Now you know why I asked my question. When these locals put out their numbers, they are copying them. Likewise, it seems that when one offshore book moves a number, it's like knocking down dominoes, they all 'copy' the move. In my naive thinking, I thought maybe opening closer to the 'opening number' might be better, but I guess not. This is why I asked the question. Admittedly, this is something that these locals talked about, and I wanted to get someone's opinion from here. You were the only one to reply to me, and I thank you. Now that you know the background of why I asked, you might feel more at ease explaining more to me. I got the sense you were somewhat suspicious with the question, but it really eminated from a benign curiosity and nothing more.

Thanks