Now, I realize there are numerous problems with the general population sample of the SBR Best Bet thread which include things like:
1) Juice is inconsistent among participants and rules on juice had varied from the start of the thread
2) A bias towards participants who start off poorly to drop out
3) Recording net profit/loss as amount won per unit bet instead of amount to win unit
However, now that it has been running for a significant time and the sample size has grown, I am wondering if we can start drawing some conclusions about the aggregate results yet?
As of the end of betting for Wednesday, May 21st, 2008, the total posted results for the entire population were:
Wins 1359
Losses 1367
Ties 38
Total bets (Not Including Ties) 2726
Net Profit -29.09
ROI Betting 1 Unit -1.06713%
Since the profit is negative at this point, I would like to explore the negative side of the results (a discussion on positive results might be appropriate if they ever occur). Notwithstanding the problems I mentioned above (and others I missed), assuming the trend of -29.09/2726= -1.06713% ROI continues, how large does the sample size have to be to say with 95% certainty that the group, as a whole, has:
1) No statistical advantage when juice is a factor
2) No statistical advantage if the lines were fair odds (i.e. no juice)
Anyone have any ideas on how to calculate this?
Off topic from this thread: FWIW although I have not participated in a tournament or best bet thread myself, I really like the idea. I think the posters who have volunteered to keep track and grade bets are doing a great service at SBR. I wonder, because of the fairly widespread popularity, if SBR at some point would not want to consider automating the entire process (time stamping, grading, consistent juice, etc.) to relieve the admins of these popular threads of any burden or at least assist them to make the job less onerous. Just a thought.
1) Juice is inconsistent among participants and rules on juice had varied from the start of the thread
2) A bias towards participants who start off poorly to drop out
3) Recording net profit/loss as amount won per unit bet instead of amount to win unit
However, now that it has been running for a significant time and the sample size has grown, I am wondering if we can start drawing some conclusions about the aggregate results yet?
As of the end of betting for Wednesday, May 21st, 2008, the total posted results for the entire population were:
Wins 1359
Losses 1367
Ties 38
Total bets (Not Including Ties) 2726
Net Profit -29.09
ROI Betting 1 Unit -1.06713%
Since the profit is negative at this point, I would like to explore the negative side of the results (a discussion on positive results might be appropriate if they ever occur). Notwithstanding the problems I mentioned above (and others I missed), assuming the trend of -29.09/2726= -1.06713% ROI continues, how large does the sample size have to be to say with 95% certainty that the group, as a whole, has:
1) No statistical advantage when juice is a factor
2) No statistical advantage if the lines were fair odds (i.e. no juice)
Anyone have any ideas on how to calculate this?
Off topic from this thread: FWIW although I have not participated in a tournament or best bet thread myself, I really like the idea. I think the posters who have volunteered to keep track and grade bets are doing a great service at SBR. I wonder, because of the fairly widespread popularity, if SBR at some point would not want to consider automating the entire process (time stamping, grading, consistent juice, etc.) to relieve the admins of these popular threads of any burden or at least assist them to make the job less onerous. Just a thought.