Is using poisson distribution to predict o/u pitcher strikeouts OK? The 4 criterion listed in the book are over 20 trials, odds off occurrence are less than 10%, go up in increments of 1 and past distribution is the same. The only criteria which is not met is odds off occurrence, the average strikeout rate is around 18%. Does that rule out any way of successfully using poisson to price the prop or could it still be close enough that it would still work?
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Our head moderator, author, and professional sports bettor Justin7 once made a video explaining why poisson isn´t a good idea for strikeout props. It was pretty worthless, but you may be able to find it.Comment -
If it's not a rare event, which in this case it is not, then try using a binomial distribution instead of a Poisson distribution to determine the probability. No guarantee it will work, but it's worth a shot testing it I would think.Comment -
The way I have the model set up using binomial distributions won't work with out making a ton of calculations. I am going to take a sample of starting pitchers strikeout in each game started to find a standard deviation and then use the normal distribution in excel and see how that works.Comment
