I was discussing a football prop with some friends and wanted to try to figure out the math behind it to see who's getting the better end of the deal.
You offer a friend a bet with +100 odds that he can pick 7 teams to miss the NFL playoffs. If all those teams miss the playoffs, you lose. If any of them make it, you win. Assuming the friend will be picking the bottom 7 teams based on Vegas odds, or some close variation (maybe 6 of the bottom teams + a team he hates, for instance), how do you figure out who's getting the better end of the deal?
I spoke to math whiz IrishTim who suggested I "check Pinnacle futures (season wins would be more accurate but harder to convert) to get the no-vig odds of a team making the playoffs. Do this for the 7 bottom teams and see if the probability of one making the playoffs is > 50%."
I went to Pinnacle and started poking around but found myself sort of clueless. Also, Pinny offers divisional winner odds, not necessarily "make the playoffs" odds, so it doesn't figure in the four wildcard spots.
Can someone help me out here? I know how to calculate a vig-free line but honestly feel kinda lost.
You offer a friend a bet with +100 odds that he can pick 7 teams to miss the NFL playoffs. If all those teams miss the playoffs, you lose. If any of them make it, you win. Assuming the friend will be picking the bottom 7 teams based on Vegas odds, or some close variation (maybe 6 of the bottom teams + a team he hates, for instance), how do you figure out who's getting the better end of the deal?
I spoke to math whiz IrishTim who suggested I "check Pinnacle futures (season wins would be more accurate but harder to convert) to get the no-vig odds of a team making the playoffs. Do this for the 7 bottom teams and see if the probability of one making the playoffs is > 50%."
I went to Pinnacle and started poking around but found myself sort of clueless. Also, Pinny offers divisional winner odds, not necessarily "make the playoffs" odds, so it doesn't figure in the four wildcard spots.
Can someone help me out here? I know how to calculate a vig-free line but honestly feel kinda lost.