Inefficient line reaction to MLB lineups?

[God1]

Pinnacle seems slow, if not oblivious to many day-day lineup changes, seemingly happy with their line until it gets bet. Over the past few weeks, lines have been either very slow to adjust or not adjust at all to key players being out. When Tulo got hurt a couple weeks ago and missed a few games it took at least an hour after Tulo was pulled from the game with the injury for any line movement for the next days game(the initial move was about 5 cents if I remember correctly).

Today, the Angels lineup came out without Howie Kendrick and there has been zero movement in response. There have been other examples I'm not going to bother to list but no reaction to Kendrick being out seems particularly egregious. As I write this, the Angels have actually got a cent more expensive since the lineup came out.

A simple explanation would that all the random days off were anticipated before the lineups came out, is this the case?

[God1]

Is there anyone that has an opinion on this? There was another angels game this week that ignored Kendrick being out and today Parra and Montero out and a callup moved to 2 spot in the order and the line moves only 2 cents.

[Rich Boy]

Ive noticed the same thing.

Lines come out well before lineups are posted. I think books already know about players get rest days and injuries, sometimes a guy is pulled late. I havent seen too much line movement after lineups are posted.

[God1]

Ive noticed the same thing.

Lines come out well before lineups are posted. I think books already know about players get rest days and injuries, sometimes a guy is pulled late. I havent seen too much line movement after lineups are posted.

How could they possibly know the random day of game scratches(I've seen quick line reaction to Ortiz and Votto)? Howie Kendrick has had random days off the past few weeks with no reaction, how could they possibly anticipate those?

The likely explantation seems that pinnacle just focuses on balancing the money and following their sharp action and ignores a few cents here and there of lineup variance. It's an absurd thought but what's the alternative explanation?

[TheMoneyShot]

How could they possibly know the random day of game scratches(I've seen quick line reaction to Ortiz and Votto)? Howie Kendrick has had random days off the past few weeks with no reaction, how could they possibly anticipate those??

That's why they have odds/line makers. That's what they are paid to do. You would only anticipate that's the only explanation of a line not moving because of a "late scratch".... the books already anticipated the scratch well before it was known to the public. Books are good... they aren't dumb. Don't get too caught up into the moment...

[skrtelfan]

Today, the Angels lineup came out without Howie Kendrick and there has been zero movement in response. There have been other examples I'm not going to bother to list but no reaction to Kendrick being out seems particularly egregious. As I write this, the Angels have actually got a cent more expensive since the lineup came out.

A lot of average-type players are very fungible. Kendrick was replaced by Izturis, although Izturis probably would have played 3rd if Kendrick was in the lineup so I guess Kendrick was effectively replaced by Callaspo. Kendrick, Izturis, and Callaspo are all very similar players in value by many measures. WARP actually has Izturis and Callaspo worth a fractionally more this year than Kendrick. The numbers I use predict Kendrick is slightly more valuable but it's such a tiny amount as to be negligible.

Tulowitski is another matter entirely as there's a huge gap between him and whoever would replace him, but perhaps the market was waiting to see the extent of the injury, after all, he did end up playing.

[TomG]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/issue76/king-yao-lineup-adjustments-baseball.php

[God1]

A lot of average-type players are very fungible. Kendrick was replaced by Izturis, although Izturis probably would have played 3rd if Kendrick was in the lineup so I guess Kendrick was effectively replaced by Callaspo. Kendrick, Izturis, and Callaspo are all very similar players in value by many measures. WARP actually has Izturis and Callaspo worth a fractionally more this year than Kendrick. The numbers I use predict Kendrick is slightly more valuable but it's such a tiny amount as to be negligible.

Are you really calling Kendrick average type? And then saying he is about the same callaspo, izturis? really? Kendrick is 18th in the majors in WAR at 4.3. Izturis 1.6 and Callaspo 2.1

Tulowitski is another matter entirely as there's a huge gap between him and whoever would replace him, but perhaps the market was waiting to see the extent of the injury, after all, he did end up playing.

He didn't end up playing. The line moved BEFORE the game over and before anyone knew the extent of the injury, the only information anyone had when the line moved was watching the play and seeing him almost limp off the field. It took 1 hour after the injury occured for movement(I was watching the game). Pinnacle was slow on that move period. Did pinnacle have the rockies trainer on the line to get the result of the injury by the 7th inning? Of course not.

You would only anticipate that's the only explanation of a line not moving because of a "late scratch".... the books already anticipated the scratch well before it was known to the public.

Unfortunately, not only this is extremely unplausible, but there is plenty of evidence to the contrary

Books are good... they aren't dumb. Don't get too caught up into the moment...

Of course they're dumb, they would get crushed if they had to stick to their opening lines as evidenced by the huge moves you see in baseball moneylines, even this late in the season. Books are good when setting a line that includes a vast amount of market participation and information. Let's make that distinction clear. People have this image of the books as completely infallible, god-like beings...if that were the case they would be no need to ever move a line off the open

[God1]

http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...s-baseball.php

He is high in all his estimates. There was a Votto absence within the past week or two and the move was 5 cents. There was an adrian gonzalez absence at some point in the last month and the move was under 10 cents(and this was on a line above -150)

edit: LOL he's got above average DH/1B in the same category as Pedroia(I know this article was written in April, it's still outrageous). A billy butler absence worth 8 cents LOL. That guy is out of his mind. That article is worthless

[uva3021]

don't know why RC would be a sound assessment of a player's overall value. WAR resolves most of that variance considering the lack of precise measures of defensive ability, and is already presented as a win expectation. RC is inherently flawed anway because every HR counts as 4 runs.

[skrtelfan]

Are you really calling Kendrick average type? And then saying he is about the same callaspo, izturis? really? Kendrick is 18th in the majors in WAR at 4.3. Izturis 1.6 and Callaspo 2.1

4 months is not really a sufficient sample size, but regardless, Baseball Prospectus's WARP numbers have the latter two as better, I believe it was 1.6 for Kendrick and around 2.0 for the other two. Baseball-Reference's WAR calculations have Kendrick at 2.9, Izturis 2.6, Callaspo 2.7. I believe all three players will be pretty similar going forward.

He didn't end up playing. The line moved BEFORE the game over and before anyone knew the extent of the injury, the only information anyone had when the line moved was watching the play and seeing him almost limp off the field. It took 1 hour after the injury occured for movement(I was watching the game). Pinnacle was slow on that move period. Did pinnacle have the rockies trainer on the line to get the result of the injury by the 7th inning? Of course not.

I didn't notice the "couple weeks" ago indication, I thought you were talking about his current injury. The night before you posted, he left with some sort of thumb issue and it was questionable whether he'd play the next day, and he did. I don't know exactly what injury you're talking about and the timing involved, but if it happened during the evening, it would not surprise me if Pinnacle didn't even have a linesman on duty and was just moving on action.

[evo34]

Pretty marginal differences between the players in terms of rest-of-season per-start expectations, as others have pointed out.

[God1]

Pretty marginal differences between the players in terms of rest-of-season per-start expectations, as others have pointed out.

How marginal? Yesterday the Tigers had Magglio, Austin Jackson, Peralta, and Avila sitting and there was zero movement at the announcement. It's safe to assume that magglio and jackson being replaced by dirks and kelly doesn't change anything, but Peralta and Avila were both replaced by notably worse players, Peralta's case alot worse. Do you believe a lineup without those 4 guys changes the Tigers odds of winning by 0%?

There was also no movement on announcement of Utley being scratched last night. Him for valdez has an impact of less than 1 cent on the phillies probability of winning?

[evo34]

How marginal? Yesterday the Tigers had Magglio, Austin Jackson, Peralta, and Avila sitting and there was zero movement at the announcement. It's safe to assume that magglio and jackson being replaced by dirks and kelly doesn't change anything, but Peralta and Avila were both replaced by notably worse players, Peralta's case alot worse. Do you believe a lineup without those 4 guys changes the Tigers odds of winning by 0%? There was also no movement on announcement of Utley being scratched last night. Him for valdez has an impact of less than 1 cent on the phillies probability of winning?

Was referring to the three Angels players mentioned above.

[God1]

Was referring to the three Angels players mentioned above.

You're right, I didn't realize how high Kendrick's BABIP was, when you regress that and factor in the volatility of the defensive metric in WAR it's much closer. What's your opinion on the utley/tigers absences resulting in no line movement?

[evo34]

That's definitely a downgrade for the Tigers, although the four players who started had had significant playing time during the year. I.e., Leyland shuffles his lineup all the time and so his bench quality will already be factored into YTD team stats more than most teams'.

And the risk of a guy like Kelly starting is at least somewhat known, given than he only plays against righties. Same with Dirks. Magglio and Raburn prob. about the same expected perf. Def. a worse lineup than avg. for Tigers, but I don't think hugely so.

[evo34]

How marginal? Yesterday the Tigers had Magglio, Austin Jackson, Peralta, and Avila sitting and there was zero movement at the announcement. It's safe to assume that magglio and jackson being replaced by dirks and kelly doesn't change anything, but Peralta and Avila were both replaced by notably worse players, Peralta's case alot worse. Do you believe a lineup without those 4 guys changes the Tigers odds of winning by 0%? There was also no movement on announcement of Utley being scratched last night. Him for valdez has an impact of less than 1 cent on the phillies probability of winning?

Yeah, Utley to Valdez is massive. Prob. 3-4% decrease in win pct. I'm sure it was at least partially priced in, as he played both games of a DH the day before, and it was day game.

When you are checking for lineups, I assume you are using mlb.com (2-3 hours before gametime)?

[italianbandit]

The likely explantation seems that pinnacle just focuses on balancing the money and following their sharp action and ignores a few cents here and there of lineup variance. It's an absurd thought but what's the alternative explanation?

Yes I agree.

[LT Profits]

Yeah, Utley to Valdez is massive. Prob. 3-4% decrease in win pct. I'm sure it was at least partially priced in, as he played both games of a DH the day before, and it was day game.

When you are checking for lineups, I assume you are using mlb.com (2-3 hours before gametime)?

There are some roto sites that have lineups up 4 hours before gametime (sometimes more!). When there are all night games with the first one starting at 7:00 ET, you can probably see every single team's lineup before the first game starts.

[God1]

Yeah, Utley to Valdez is massive. Prob. 3-4% decrease in win pct. I'm sure it was at least partially priced in, as he played both games of a DH the day before, and it was day game

I didn't notice that. I guess I'm beating a dead horse here, but McCutchen out for the Pirates, an immediate 2 cent move that got bought back almost instantly and the pirates were more expensive 3 minutes later. Last home game of a series facing a sweep I can't imagine his absence could've been priced in. Adam Dunn was also out of the lineup today facing a lefty and there was zero reaction, this is the first time in weeks he has actually sat against a lefty so I would presume there had to be some talk from the manager last night that indicated he was being benched if it was anticipated. Being something like 4-80 on the year against lefties and out of the cleanup spot and the game has to have a pretty big impact I would imagine.

evo, what's your opinion? Does pinnacle just ignore lineups for the most part with a few exceptions and just sit back and be efficient market makers? There's definitely explanations for alot of these absences probably being priced in. Then again there would be at least a few times where that assumption of absence would be wrong and the market would have to swing back and that I haven't seen. I wish I knew the answer. I'm leaning towards pinnacle mostly ignoring lineup changes but I know there are smarter people here than me who have a better idea than my best guess.

When you are checking for lineups, I assume you are using mlb.com (2-3 hours before gametime)?

rotoinfo.com is what I use and definitely the earliest posting site I've seen. The few times I have seen line reaction to lineups(votto, ortiz) the move was,as far I can remember, within a minute of the rotoinfo timestamp for the lineup.

[skrtelfan]

The problem is that lineups listed on mlb.com are not certain, since a team isn't obligated to use that actual lineup until they are turned into the umpire shortly before the first pitch. I forget which game it was, I believe the first ATL game after the trading deadline, but I saw a lineup without Bourn in it about 90 minutes before gametime. Then I saw on some fantasy site that Bourn would be playing. The actual lineup ended up having 4 differences between the lineup I saw 90 minutes before, although in several cases it was the same players in the lineup just at a different position and order in the lineup, so there was only one actual player difference. Still, it is easy to get faked out by lineups which later change.

[evo34]

Does rotoinfo have earlier lineups than mlb.com? For some reason, when I go there and click on MLB lineups, I get a page that has nothing but some photos.

Truthfully, I don't follow lineup change reactions. I make assumptions on lineups based on history and get my bets in well before lineups are published. I would not be surprised, however, if the reaction to lineup announcements was less than efficient.

[tomcowley]

A billy butler absence worth 8 cents LOL. That guy is out of his mind. That article is worthless

What do you think Billy Butler -> Chris Getz (who was replacement DH last night) is worth? Or Mitch Maier? Or substitute a replacement DH of your choice and give a number.

[evo34]

What do you think Billy Butler -> Chris Getz (who was replacement DH last night) is worth? Or Mitch Maier? Or substitute a replacement DH of your choice and give a number.

Do you mean for a whole game, or one PA? Getz never batted in the game, but it's a pretty huge diff. if he replaces Butler for a whole game. ~3%. Perhaps a touch less if vs. a RHP.

[tomcowley]

Random full game of rest (the topic ITT).