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1. ## Value of a strikeout in regard to prop betting

Im having a little trouble with this. What would be the value of a strikeout, in terms of cents in betting line? For instance, say you see the line of strikeouts in a game, o5.5 -182 u5.5 +154. What would total strikeouts for the same pitcher be worth at ou7? I guess my question is what is the cost of a strikeout?

2. I doubt anyone would have the data to even begin to estimate the dollar value of a strikeout. Even if somebody had an extensive database with closing strikeout total prices it would not give you any indication of the true value because you are talking about a prop market with \$500 max wagers which is not a very efficient market.

3. Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.

4. One thought is that you would need to get more data to be able to quantify just exactly how much worse a team is at 7.9 than the average. Is that a full standard deviation away, for example?

5. Originally Posted by Poogs
Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.
You could divide TB batting SO's by the league average and than multiply that with Lee's SO average.

I am not too sure that using poisson would be the best fit for this scenario though considering that SO's occur somewhere in the 20% range per trial.

6. Thanks man, I used that formula for liranos k's + bb's yesterday and got roughly 8.5. One of my sites had o7.5 -125 and I bombed it (can get down a grand on props) so thanks

7. o7.5 @ -125 with your result of 8.5. I don't know about you guys, but it sounds like a marginal +EV prop for me at that price.

What did you quantify the prop's probability at?

8. I'm not sure, I'm pretty new to pricing my own props and was trying to get it done before gametime so I'm not even sure if I did it right.

If someone who knows their stuff could help me out/check my work I'd give all my points for it, pm me if anyone wants to.