Value of a strikeout in regard to prop betting

**sharpcat** · 10-06-10, 12:17 PM

I doubt anyone would have the data to even begin to estimate the dollar value of a strikeout. Even if somebody had an extensive database with closing strikeout total prices it would not give you any indication of the true value because you are talking about a prop market with $500 max wagers which is not a very efficient market.

**Poogs** · 10-06-10, 12:47 PM

Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.

**MadTiger** · 10-06-10, 01:36 PM

One thought is that you would need to get more data to be able to quantify just exactly how much worse a team is at 7.9 than the average. Is that a full standard deviation away, for example?

**sharpcat** · 10-06-10, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Poogs

Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.

You could divide TB batting SO's by the league average and than multiply that with Lee's SO average.

I am not too sure that using poisson would be the best fit for this scenario though considering that SO's occur somewhere in the 20% range per trial.

**Poogs** · 10-07-10, 08:21 AM

Thanks man, I used that formula for liranos k's + bb's yesterday and got roughly 8.5. One of my sites had o7.5 -125 and I bombed it (can get down a grand on props) so thanks

**brettd** · 10-07-10, 12:13 PM

o7.5 @ -125 with your result of 8.5. I don't know about you guys, but it sounds like a marginal +EV prop for me at that price.

What did you quantify the prop's probability at?

**Poogs** · 10-08-10, 09:32 AM

I'm not sure, I'm pretty new to pricing my own props and was trying to get it done before gametime so I'm not even sure if I did it right.

If someone who knows their stuff could help me out/check my work I'd give all my points for it, pm me if anyone wants to.