[Poogs]

Im having a little trouble with this. What would be the value of a strikeout, in terms of cents in betting line? For instance, say you see the line of strikeouts in a game, o5.5 -182 u5.5 +154. What would total strikeouts for the same pitcher be worth at ou7? I guess my question is what is the cost of a strikeout?

[sharpcat]

I doubt anyone would have the data to even begin to estimate the dollar value of a strikeout. Even if somebody had an extensive database with closing strikeout total prices it would not give you any indication of the true value because you are talking about a prop market with $500 max wagers which is not a very efficient market.

[Poogs]

Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.

[MadTiger]

One thought is that you would need to get more data to be able to quantify just exactly how much worse a team is at 7.9 than the average. Is that a full standard deviation away, for example?

[sharpcat]

Ok then Ive been trying a different approach using poisson. Cliff Lee averages about 6.4 ks a game. Just using that and putting it into poisson I get u7 should be about -118. However, how do you factor the rays into the equation. From my ROUGH numbers (trying to figure it out before game time today which didnt happen) I have concluded that the average team struck out about 7.25 times per game this year, and the rays were a little above average, striking out roughly 7.9 times per game. I just can quite figure out how to factor this into the equation.

You could divide TB batting SO's by the league average and than multiply that with Lee's SO average.

I am not too sure that using poisson would be the best fit for this scenario though considering that SO's occur somewhere in the 20% range per trial.

[Poogs]

Thanks man, I used that formula for liranos k's + bb's yesterday and got roughly 8.5. One of my sites had o7.5 -125 and I bombed it (can get down a grand on props) so thanks

[brettd]

o7.5 @ -125 with your result of 8.5. I don't know about you guys, but it sounds like a marginal +EV prop for me at that price.

What did you quantify the prop's probability at?

[Poogs]

I'm not sure, I'm pretty new to pricing my own props and was trying to get it done before gametime so I'm not even sure if I did it right.

If someone who knows their stuff could help me out/check my work I'd give all my points for it, pm me if anyone wants to.