Line data for rugby?

**jgilmartin** · 06-25-11, 12:10 PM

http://txodds.com/v2/0/services.pro.html has a historical odds database. They focus on European players so there is a good chance they have international rugby union odds. I don't know, but wouldn't hurt to ask them.

**skrtelfan** · 06-25-11, 11:29 PM

oddsportal.com has different rugby leagues archived.

**donjuan** · 06-26-11, 01:50 AM

HFA 6 to 7 wtf?

**subs** · 06-26-11, 02:12 AM

thanks skrtelfan - i looked there already and could only get 90 usable games.

donjuan, i realise this is a very very rough method but going back to 1960 (2000 games) i get home teams outscore aways by between 6-7 points. it is probably too high. any ideas how to improve it is gratefully appreciated. the trouble is with only 2000 games i'm getting into small sample size probs if i try anything too complex.

can u tell me why 6-7 is wtf?

peace

**Tackleberry** · 06-26-11, 07:12 AM

The average amount that all home teams have outscored the away team does not work out to HFA, that would only be the case if every single game was played between teams that are evenly matched on a neutral field.

**subs** · 06-26-11, 08:28 AM

Tackleberry, thanks for ur input. (nice avatar pic BTW)

i was kindda hoping it would even out some but because there will never be a big tournament in the solomon islands or something it doesn't. the better teams tend to play at home more.

i can get a fairly close spread conversion from the ML (have ok push charts) but without any decent line data, i'm pretty screwed. they only play so few times a year that getting anything useful is tough. like if they played home and away every season it would be easy.

my best guess right now is closer to 6 than 7 but i'd take any advice i can get gratefully.

thank u gentlemen.

**Jontheman** · 06-26-11, 12:48 PM

Why not use the next highest tier of rugby you can find? You could use data from Heineken Cup and Super 15 to get a HFA score. It would eliminate most of the problems of too many imbalanced matchups and there's a lot more data. If you wanted to get a bit more accuracy you could use only those matches where international travel is involved from out of those two competitions. It's obviously not perfect, but I think it would give a better approximation when considering two well matched teams than your current method.

**donjuan** · 06-26-11, 03:44 PM

Going back to 1960 for data is crazy for many reasons but mainly because a try was worth 3 until 1971, 4 from 1971 til 1992 and 5 from then until now.

**subs** · 06-26-11, 06:50 PM

Thanks Johntheman - going to do just that.

DonJuan, thank u sir. i screwed up really good there... i think u literally just saved my ass, and the books don't even use KY. i'd have been walking like john wayne for a long time.

many thanks.

**Duff85** · 06-29-11, 02:15 AM

Gearing up for RWC Subs?