Calculating a pitcher's added runs

[Lord and Master]

I'll start by saying i'm not sure what the price difference is between 9 and 9.5. I think its around 30 cents and thats the assumption I made here. This is about the reds yankees total today. When Travis Wood was announced as the starter pinnacle moved the total price from over 9 -110 to over 9.5 +100, which is about a 20 cent move. According to the total it seems Wood is being handicapped to add an extra .34 runs to the game. The Yankees hit lefties about .30 OPS better and Wood's xFIP is a full point higher than Cueto. This seems like it should add more than .34 on to the total. If we assume they were to both go 6 innings, lets assume a 1 ERA difference between Cueto and Wood(this situation suggests it should be bigger)Cueto gives up 2 runs and wood gives up 2.66 runs.

I must be going wrong somewhere, anyone have any idea?

I have a second question(possibly just as ignorant), the padres/red sox total is at over 10.5 +105 and the team totals are sox over 5.5 -108 and padres over 4 -117. Obviously betting the sox team over and padres team over(if you bet the same amount) is not the same as betting over 9.5 -113. Can anyone explain why that is? over 9.5 -113 and over 10.5 +105 looks to be at least a 25 cent difference. I'm sure there's a simple answer to this i just don't know it. thanks

[uva3021]

I just use half a run = 8-10 cents. That way you can find an expected RL from the ML and the total. over 9 -110 and over 9.5 + 100 are roughly equivalent. Have you looked at Wood's career IP/S rather than just make the 6 inning assumption?

[Lord and Master]

I just use half a run = 8-10 cents.

over 9 -110 and over 9.5 + 100 are roughly equivalent.

sorry but these are both definitely wrong

Have you looked at Wood's career IP/S rather than just make the 6 inning assumption?

so lets make a 5 inning assumption, we're still off by a good amount. I think this is the most irrelevant piece of my post. If anything, Wood goes less and Cueto going more innings should add more runs because Cueto has a lower expected ERA than the collective Reds bullpen

[evo34]

I don't know that the Reds bullpen should be expected to be worse than Cueto. I think the most optimistic case you can make for Cueto's rest-of-season ERA is 3.50, which is about what the Reds' bullpen peripheral ERA has been this year.

Anyway, that (projected IP/start) is a very minor point. I think that the price reflects that people think Cueto is outperforming YTD and/or Wood is underperforming (vs. pre-season projections). My pre-season projections had Cueto at 4.35 and Wood at 4.18, just to use one person's view. As pointed out, Cueto has been ~0.90 runs/9 better than Wood YTD in xFIP. But even using peripheral stats, it's generally best to regress YTD stats by a fair amount toward pre-season expectations at this time of the season.

So it boils down to how you weight pre-2011 stats vs. 2011 stats. I don't claim to have the optimal answer, but it is certainly well above 0/100 at the halfway point of a season.

sorry but these are both definitely wrong so lets make a 5 inning assumption, we're still off by a good amount. I think this is the most irrelevant piece of my post. If anything, Wood goes less and Cueto going more innings should add more runs because Cueto has a lower expected ERA than the collective Reds bullpen