Study a new System could use input

[LVBOUND]

When I was at 5Dimes recently I noticed the Alt Runline that it can be bought to +2.5

I then made a parlay

-365
-400

25 to win 14.81

I then made a 2nd parlay

-305
-285

25 to win 19.84

That turns out to be a line of
-168 on Parlay 1
and
-126 on Parlay 2


On average I found these lines to be the high and lows.

So then two things came to my mind

#1 What if I played every home team parlayed AL with a NL for the season Randomly.

#2 What if I did the worst thing none to man and chased it....


So I counted the first 120 game so far this baseball season and found that

90 Wins 30 Loses

if you bet the home team regardless of their opponent.

so if you randomly picked sides the worst you could do is

45 and 30 the absolute worst.

the profit of that would be


30 loses x (25 dollar base unit) 750 dollars
wins
if you take an avg of the 2 test parlays (14.81 and 19.84) = 17.325

45 x 17.325 = 779.625.

A very small winner.

4 dollars.

Now realize that is the absolute worst you could do.

I then picked in order using MLB at bat 11 for my phone, the top team and the team under it as a pair and then below it the same and so on, until I had a pair for all series.

once I had a pair for all series I played the home team in a chase and it did not lose so far this year. So that would have been a profit of 60 wins at 25 so (60 x 25 = 1500).


So then I got crazy and picked 8 random teams for last year 4 AL and 4 NL

I matched them up and chased them for the entire year 179 series. The chase went 177 and 2.

A chase loss was 16.5 units

So that profit was
2 * (16.5*25) = 825 dollars

The 177 victory's = 177 * 25 = 4425

Profit 4425-825 = 3600.


Guys my biggest fear is that 5 Dimes would see you beating the +2.5 and cut you off. Their is no doubt this will work, I just worry that I would get cut off?

Anybody got any ideas or suggestions?

Matt

[durito]

you wont get cut off

[jolmscheid]

I'm kinda confused here...are you just playing every home team +2.5?

[jolmscheid]

Or you are chasing? Please explain a little more...would like to help... thanks

[LVBOUND]

I am just starting #1. I am not sure if I should chase or if I should play every single game.

I think both ways will work, since the bet is about 75% and the avg line is -173

I am starting a thread in baseball handicapping where I will be taking 2 series every half week and chasing. I am excited to see how that works out.

I hope to use this thread, to provide ideas and improve the system.

I am sorry my brain thinks faster than I can explain.

Matt

[Flight]

Their is no doubt this will work

5Dimes understands the value of a run. Going from a moneyline to +2.5 runline, there are simple conversions you can perform to come up with the correct +2.5 odds, just like you can convert a moneyline to a +1.5 runline. If you perform this yourself, you will see that the runlines are correctly priced. I do this routinely with +1.5 and -1.5. You have not gained a magical edge by playing short odds. I have not ran an exercise for +2.5 but something tells me that it will be priced correctly - actually it will be priced worse, as alternate lines typically have higher juice than standard lines.

So, if you work through that and come to terms with the fact that +2.5 runlines give you between -3 and -10% EV on average, parlaying the +2.5 runlines subtracts another 5% or so of expected value, and thus you will lose long term. You could win thousands short term, but it does not matter, the game you are playing is mathematically configured to hold money from players over the long term.

That is my quick analysis of the situation. Without a massive game database and lots of backtesting, you are just gambling like everyone else. Even if you were to run this through every home team last year and you had records of the +2.5 odds for every game, and you come up with something that wins --- you still just found something in the data without having an original hypothesis and novel thought process as to why you are seeing what you are seeing. You must follow scientific method. Otherwise you just look for something that worked once.

My suggestion is to start a database and start logging +2.5 runline odds (and the total and other game prices, of course). Along with the odds history, begin logging box scores. This should be easy to do. The more sources of +2.5 lines the better.

You've got to perform an exercise like this before putting money on it.

And one other point - you are not the first to parlay +2.5 (many others on SBR have done it publicly (Rake?), and I'm surprised they haven't chirped in here yet telling you how badly it failed)

[LVBOUND]

Well we will see All I can do is go off of the 120 games from this year and the 279 series I played last season which I have data standing by and and it won huge there. Once again this could be just luck, I an sure thats what it is. I will test it to find out.

I can tell you this, I just went through 2 months say by day and just for shits and giggles everytime bos and ny played on the same day they never lost a 3 game chase.

Maybe that is luck? I do not know

[LVBOUND]

Ok since you brought it up, I thought I would mention.

I took last years Red Sox and Yankees

Put them on a spreadsheet.

I then matched up everyday they played on the same day.

I used the 3 game chase and my record was.

85-2

with an avg loss of 16.5 units that = a profit of 19 Units.

HOWEVER if you took away the back end pitchers for both teams and only played the top 3 on each team when they matched up the record was

51-0 for a profit of 51 Units. LOL

Anybody who says this can't be beat isnt trying hard enough.

[jgilmartin]

Everything Flight said, plus:
The only thing I can think of worse than data mining would be a using a chase system to bet data mined systems. The fact that you lost the previous game(s) does not mean that you have a better chance to win this game. Do you acknowledge this?

[That Foreign Guy]

What about using a chase system to bet data mined systems at the worst possible price you can find...

...while being sodomized by a lion with super-aids?

Cats have ****ing barbed spikes on their man parts. Just thought I'd share that, it doesn't really affect your chance of being profitable, but then at this point it's a bad idea anyway may as well go the whole hog.

[jgilmartin]

What about using a chase system to bet data mined systems at the worst possible price you can find...

...while being sodomized by a lion with super-aids?

Cats have ****ing barbed spikes on their man parts. Just thought I'd share that, it doesn't really affect your chance of being profitable, but then at this point it's a bad idea anyway may as well go the whole hog.

LOL touché

[bulichme]

I'm inerested in what you're doing here, but no time to look at it today.

[durito]

Ok since you brought it up, I thought I would mention.

I took last years Red Sox and Yankees

Put them on a spreadsheet.

I then matched up everyday they played on the same day.

I used the 3 game chase and my record was.

85-2

with an avg loss of 16.5 units that = a profit of 19 Units.

HOWEVER if you took away the back end pitchers for both teams and only played the top 3 on each team when they matched up the record was

51-0 for a profit of 51 Units. LOL

Anybody who says this can't be beat isnt trying hard enough.

you can bet 20k on the 2.5 rl at pinny. you should be a millionaire in no time.

[WendysRox]

What about using a chase system to bet data mined systems at the worst possible price you can find...

...while being sodomized by a lion with super-aids?

Cats have ****ing barbed spikes on their man parts. Just thought I'd share that, it doesn't really affect your chance of being profitable, but then at this point it's a bad idea anyway may as well go the whole hog.

[LVBOUND]

Thanks for all your guys input. I am so glad I came to the think tank. Nothing but positive energy here.

Went very well tonight make sure to follow my +2.5 thread in the Baseball Handicapping section.

[sharpcat]

Thanks for all your guys input. I am so glad I came to the think tank. Nothing but positive energy here.

Went very well tonight make sure to follow my +2.5 thread in the Baseball Handicapping section.

The responses in this thread give you feelings of positive energy?

You should read them again.

[LVBOUND]

I can tell your not that Sharp....of course not, most of this idiots are to ignorant to try no things.

The only negative response I respect in this entire thread is Flight, because I believe in what he says on the most part. The rest like you are fukking trolls who want nothing more than to watch someone fail.

[That Foreign Guy]

Actually I don't want to see you fail, it's just that the price you pay for my advice (and that of some other posters here) is that I phrase it in a manner that amuses me.

I'll be more clear:

Chase systems are the hallmark of a desperate bettor. Unless you genuinely find a situation where losing one game makes a team more likely to win the next one all you are doing by chasing is improving your median result by courting massive variance. I describe strategies like this (laying bridge jumpers blindly on exchanges, martingale, etc) as picking up pennies in front of a bull dozer. You'll get a little richer for a while, but eventually it will hit you.

http://www.wizardofodds.com/gambling...ngsystems.html - especially look at the graph of flat betting vs martingale. How would you feel ending up on the left hand edge of that graph? When an out of sample series of results happen that's where you end up. Let's not get in to data-mining too much for now, suffice to say just because you filtered something that went 51-0 that does not mean it will go 51-0 in the future.

[arwar]

5Dimes understands the value of a run. Going from a moneyline to +2.5 runline, there are simple conversions you can perform to come up with the correct +2.5 odds, just like you can convert a moneyline to a +1.5 runline. If you perform this yourself, you will see that the runlines are correctly priced. I do this routinely with +1.5 and -1.5. You have not gained a magical edge by playing short odds. I have not ran an exercise for +2.5 but something tells me that it will be priced correctly - actually it will be priced worse, as alternate lines typically have higher juice than standard lines.

So, if you work through that and come to terms with the fact that +2.5 runlines give you between -3 and -10% EV on average, parlaying the +2.5 runlines subtracts another 5% or so of expected value, and thus you will lose long term. You could win thousands short term, but it does not matter, the game you are playing is mathematically configured to hold money from players over the long term.

That is my quick analysis of the situation. Without a massive game database and lots of backtesting, you are just gambling like everyone else. Even if you were to run this through every home team last year and you had records of the +2.5 odds for every game, and you come up with something that wins --- you still just found something in the data without having an original hypothesis and novel thought process as to why you are seeing what you are seeing. You must follow scientific method. Otherwise you just look for something that worked once.

My suggestion is to start a database and start logging +2.5 runline odds (and the total and other game prices, of course). Along with the odds history, begin logging box scores. This should be easy to do. The more sources of +2.5 lines the better.

You've got to perform an exercise like this before putting money on it.

And one other point - you are not the first to parlay +2.5 (many others on SBR have done it publicly (Rake?), and I'm surprised they haven't chirped in here yet telling you how badly it failed)

can you toss out the conversion formula for moneyline to runline... thanks, i used to have it but it seems to have lost itself.

[Flight]

Well it's not a symbolic formula, rather a derivation based on actuals.

I was getting ready to type out my table, but saw this link on another thread:

http://wizardofodds.com/mlb