MLB Windspeed to runs conversion?

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  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #1
    MLB Windspeed to runs conversion?
    Has anyone found any studies on the effect of windspeed and direction of the wind on scoring in MLB? It is common knowledge about Wrigley's changing wind, but it obviously has a lesser effect at other parks. How do you quantify it?
  • lovesbaseball1
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-07-10
    • 18

    #2
    I've looked pretty hard and not come up with anything decent.

    Not only is there nothing decent out there, I think the wind data in the retrosheet box scores is probably poor quality.

    Wind must effect every stadium differently, a wind blowing in 20 mph can't possibly have the same effect in tall, retractable roof stadium as it does in fairly open center field parks. Plus, some stadiums probably funnel the wind in weird ways. A wind in from LF could probably benefit a ball hit to RC or RF in some parks.

    Anyway, I don't have the answers, but would be willing to pay for good info if anyone has some.
    Comment
    • jgilmartin
      SBR MVP
      • 03-31-09
      • 1119

      #3
      The categories they used in the test aren't ideal, IMO, but:
      How do wind direction and speed affect fly balls in 28 major league ballparks?


      I would also pay for good info on this if anyone has.
      Last edited by jgilmartin; 04-03-11, 01:18 AM. Reason: Added the second bit
      Comment
      • Thremp
        SBR MVP
        • 07-23-07
        • 2067

        #4
        This idea is virtually useless without HitFx
        Comment
        • illfuuptn
          SBR MVP
          • 03-17-10
          • 1860

          #5
          Originally posted by Thremp
          This idea is virtually useless without HitFx
          , which doesn't exist?
          Comment
          • the_mathman
            SBR Sharp
            • 01-04-11
            • 312

            #6
            Originally posted by Justin7
            Has anyone found any studies on the effect of windspeed and direction of the wind on scoring in MLB? It is common knowledge about Wrigley's changing wind, but it obviously has a lesser effect at other parks. How do you quantify it?

            lol
            never end learning!
            Comment
            • 70kgman
              SBR MVP
              • 01-31-10
              • 4354

              #7
              Speaking of wind speed, does anyone know if weather.com is going to bring back their MLB forecast page? It is not there anymore. Don't know if they abandoned that sub page permanently or are just late putting it back up for this season.
              Comment
              • Bluehorseshoe
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-13-06
                • 14998

                #8
                Originally posted by 70kgman
                Speaking of wind speed, does anyone know if weather.com is going to bring back their MLB forecast page? It is not there anymore. Don't know if they abandoned that sub page permanently or are just late putting it back up for this season.
                Comment
                • CHUBNUT
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 06-30-09
                  • 321

                  #9
                  It always makes me laugh how Books can be so sharp but never think of the effect weather might have on a game and implenment it into their odds or how stupid a punter is thinking they dont.
                  Comment
                  • specialronnie29
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 09-19-10
                    • 140

                    #10
                    all i know is take the under on cubs games with wind blowing out

                    every loser 'handicapper' thinks hes the only genius who thinks of the wind and they all pound over
                    Comment
                    • evo34
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-09-08
                      • 1032

                      #11
                      Originally posted by specialronnie29
                      all i know is take the under on cubs games with wind blowing out every loser 'handicapper' thinks hes the only genius who thinks of the wind and they all pound over
                      Actually, quite the opposite. The smart money has been on the over when wind blowing out in Wrigley. An astounding 71-39 over record since 2006 (with no losing seasons) when wind out to RF, CF or LF, according to Covers.
                      Comment
                      • AlwaysFadeMe
                        Restricted User
                        • 06-02-11
                        • 31

                        #12
                        If Lackey pitches take the OVER
                        Comment
                        • roanildinho
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-02-10
                          • 1320

                          #13
                          justin7, this idea is crazy bro.

                          No player hits a run because of windspeed and even so how can we know when the wind will be toward our team or against it.
                          Comment
                          • sharpcircle
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 02-05-11
                            • 308

                            #14
                            roanidinho,

                            Read more, post less
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                            • MonkeyF0cker
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 06-12-07
                              • 12144

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Justin7
                              How do you quantify it?
                              Usually in miles per hour.

                              I would give you some insight, but you'd probably just put it in your next book.
                              Comment
                              • suicidekings
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-23-09
                                • 9962

                                #16
                                Every stadium is different. I would think the best way to approach it would be to rate teams and pitchers by their distribution of fly balls vs ground balls. A fly ball pitcher in a mild wind blowing out to center is probably more likely to be affected than a ground ball pitcher in heavy wind. Likewise for teams that hit a lot of balls in the air.
                                Comment
                                • Dark Horse
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-14-05
                                  • 13764

                                  #17
                                  As most will remember, the first season in new Yankee stadium had a well reported bias. Windspeed and direction were researched in newspapers lol. I believe they made some small adjustments that redirected the wind flow at the end of that season. (this opens the door as well to unreported countermeasures from season to season).

                                  At this point, sharing numerical information (that people can just enter into Excel) is the same as giving everybody you play against a little extra advantage. Same as paying for sharing info.
                                  Comment
                                  • evo34
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-09-08
                                    • 1032

                                    #18
                                    I believe Justin was simply asking, "how do you quantify it?" -- not, "please turn over your entire database to me so I can rape you."


                                    Originally posted by Dark Horse
                                    As most will remember, the first season in new Yankee stadium had a well reported bias. Windspeed and direction were researched in newspapers lol. I believe they made some small adjustments that redirected the wind flow at the end of that season. (this opens the door as well to unreported countermeasures from season to season). At this point, sharing numerical information (that people can just enter into Excel) is the same as giving everybody you play against a little extra advantage. Same as paying for sharing info.
                                    Comment
                                    • Smogs
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-31-08
                                      • 4173

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by evo34

                                      Actually, quite the opposite. The smart money has been on the over when wind blowing out in Wrigley. An astounding 71-39 over record since 2006 (with no losing seasons) when wind out to RF, CF or LF, according to Covers.
                                      Nice stats - thanks

                                      Originally posted by sharpcircle
                                      roanidinho,

                                      Read more, post less
                                      Comment
                                      • Smogs
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-31-08
                                        • 4173

                                        #20
                                        You'd have to look at those whose strikeouts are low but love the fly balls. If lincecum went to wrigley in an out blowing game, i'd think twice before betting the over, but if tim wakefield went then that 71-39 record has to be backed
                                        Comment
                                        • RichardGeorge
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 04-18-10
                                          • 640

                                          #21
                                          I think a bigger effect on the totals is the humidity during gametime.

                                          If you ever go to Fenway Park on a hot and humid night, the ball usually flies out of there. But on cold nights when the air is dry, the ball doesn't go nearly as far. I mention Fenway because I live in the area and have been to countless amount of games and seen this first hand. It would help if other "locals" could share some of there examples...
                                          Comment
                                          • evo34
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-09-08
                                            • 1032

                                            #22
                                            Most people who have tried to anaylze humidity's effect (controlled for wind and temp.) on FB distance have concluded that it's close to neutral. Mainly bc the moist air is less dense (good for more distance), but the ball will be wetter and heavier (bad for distance). The two effects seem to offset.
                                            Comment
                                            • JR007
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-21-10
                                              • 5279

                                              #23
                                              think you have to think at what point mph has an effect.....also how about crosswinds ????gusty
                                              something over at google..physics 199BB...physics of baseball
                                              Last edited by JR007; 06-21-11, 12:12 PM.
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