I always like to include examples of what i'm talking about and this one is best described as one. I just want the BEST math behind this and the right way to do it. I have tried about 4 different methods and i have my favorites but i want to know how you guys would do it. This is just something small that i need to zero in on for accuracy.
Answer this question and how do you explain how to do it.
If Team A's offense averages 78.2 points against teams that give up on average 71.96667 and Team B's defense gives up 66.1 points against teams that put up on average 75.0875 then what is a good estimation about how many points Team A will put up based on the given information?
Team A
78.2
71.9667
Team B
66.1
75.0875
The problem i'm coming up with is with the denominator. If team A difference is +6.233 and Team B difference is -8.98 then i come up with -2.75 against both teams opponents but which denominator (opp) do i add this to? Do i take the average of the denominators and then add it to get 70.78 points for Team A?
Another method is this: Team A averages 78.2 against teams that give up on average 71.9667 but Team B doesn't give up 71.9667 they give up 66.1 so Team A off will have 71.825. On the other side, Team B gives up on average 66.1 against teams that average 75.0875 but Team A doesn't put up 75.0875 they put up 78.2 so Team B def. will give up 68.84. Then take the average of 68.84 and 71.825.
Obviously there IS a distinct difference in the difficulty of the opponents and there is a difference between 68.84 points and 71.825 points in the 2nd example. Should i just stick to games in which the opponents difficulty is fairly the same? Divisonal games in NCAAB, and NBA mid-season? NBA isn't that much of a problem because the teams play all of each other. The denominators are fairly close which leads to less error but IMO NBA lines are a lot sharper than college lines. College is where the problem lies. Take a team like Davidson playing Kansas. Slight variations in opponents difficulty.
Another problem between these 2 ways that i found is when two teams both like to run. Say you have Phoenix playing Denver. If you use the 2nd example method you are taking the averages which leads to a false total. Say team A is +6 and team B defense is +4 then you would have +10 to the teams they've played against. In example 2 the average would be taken between the two numbers and a false total would come out. So instead of having a 117-112 score (method 2) you should really have a 124-119 (method 1) type score. But like i asked before, which denominator do I add the numbers to? So I more or less just need help with the first example because the 2nd gives false totals....sorry for all the info just thinking on paper.
Just throwing out some ideas, i have various others that tweak this....what would you guys do?
Answer this question and how do you explain how to do it.
If Team A's offense averages 78.2 points against teams that give up on average 71.96667 and Team B's defense gives up 66.1 points against teams that put up on average 75.0875 then what is a good estimation about how many points Team A will put up based on the given information?
Team A
78.2
71.9667
Team B
66.1
75.0875
The problem i'm coming up with is with the denominator. If team A difference is +6.233 and Team B difference is -8.98 then i come up with -2.75 against both teams opponents but which denominator (opp) do i add this to? Do i take the average of the denominators and then add it to get 70.78 points for Team A?
Another method is this: Team A averages 78.2 against teams that give up on average 71.9667 but Team B doesn't give up 71.9667 they give up 66.1 so Team A off will have 71.825. On the other side, Team B gives up on average 66.1 against teams that average 75.0875 but Team A doesn't put up 75.0875 they put up 78.2 so Team B def. will give up 68.84. Then take the average of 68.84 and 71.825.
Obviously there IS a distinct difference in the difficulty of the opponents and there is a difference between 68.84 points and 71.825 points in the 2nd example. Should i just stick to games in which the opponents difficulty is fairly the same? Divisonal games in NCAAB, and NBA mid-season? NBA isn't that much of a problem because the teams play all of each other. The denominators are fairly close which leads to less error but IMO NBA lines are a lot sharper than college lines. College is where the problem lies. Take a team like Davidson playing Kansas. Slight variations in opponents difficulty.
Another problem between these 2 ways that i found is when two teams both like to run. Say you have Phoenix playing Denver. If you use the 2nd example method you are taking the averages which leads to a false total. Say team A is +6 and team B defense is +4 then you would have +10 to the teams they've played against. In example 2 the average would be taken between the two numbers and a false total would come out. So instead of having a 117-112 score (method 2) you should really have a 124-119 (method 1) type score. But like i asked before, which denominator do I add the numbers to? So I more or less just need help with the first example because the 2nd gives false totals....sorry for all the info just thinking on paper.
Just throwing out some ideas, i have various others that tweak this....what would you guys do?