kenpom's predictions

[WendysRox]

Just seems funny how his predictions are so close to actual lines. Do you think he influences lines or do lines influence his predictions?

[Wrecktangle]

Which come out first?

[the-phenomenal-1]

lines

lines that are set just tells you how vegas wants to rig what teams gonna win if the line makes no sense and shouldnt be that then u know how its gonna go and how to bet it watch the lines closely and they will tell you how to bet

[LT Profits]

Which come out first?

Pomeroy.

He has projections for every game the rest of the year, which are obviously updated daily.

[mvp123]

thats a good site to use as PART of your handicpping but just as onepart of many different ways to cap imo

[MadTiger]

I don't know how much "tail wagging the dog" is going on there.

[Wrecktangle]

Pomeroy.

He has projections for every game the rest of the year, which are obviously updated daily.

Then I've got to believe that he is driving the market, especially since the final figures look similar; therefore he should be charging the books for his services as he is saving them a lot of money.

[ForgetWallStreet]

Then I've got to believe that he is driving the market, especially since the final figures look similar; therefore he should be charging the books for his services as he is saving them a lot of money.

His projections, while better than most of the garbage out there, are nowhere near accurate enough to bet blindly.

[Peregrine Stoop]

Then I've got to believe that he is driving the market, especially since the final figures look similar; therefore he should be charging the books for his services as he is saving them a lot of money.

the books are aware of his information. Then, the line gets a, b, c, d, e, f.... zzz factored in to the line as well.

[Flight]

On retarded small market games, KP is the best guide a book can have.

[arwar]

on a related note here is a free little scraper calculating Sagarin/Pinny matchups. if anyone is interested i can do same for KenPom. PM me if interested.

http://parlaysrus.com/dl/setup_sag-2.1.15.exe

if you use that one, after installing it you need to edit the properties of the desktop icon to "Start IN" :

"..\\program files\sagarin"

othewise data files will clutter up your desktop.

any way it does:

1. goes to usa today gets latest sagarin ratings
2. goes to pinny and gets rotation and lines
3. matches up each game with sagarin calculated (home field adjusted) lines.
4. points out games with >5 point (user definable) differences between pinny line and sagarin calculated.
5. allows a calculation of projected lines for a future date by clicking on GetSchedule button and entering date (0224 eg)

if a matchup has 000000 in the output, it means, Sagarin name <> Pinny name, but you can manually calculate it

[Joe Dogs]

Good stuff arwar....Thanks

[ScreaminPain]

ARWAR....good Job! Thanks for taking the time and posting this little tool. You mentioned a similar program using Pomeroy's numbers. I would be very interested.....I"ll PM you.

[mcdon13]

tool looks great, could you provide is with a little FAQ metadata on how to use it to pick games?

[medallion55]

Thanks a lot arwar

[nikossf]

Hey Arwar,..I would be interested in the Pomeroy's program as well. Nice job, man! where did you come across this? if you dont mind me asking...

[Nathan Bug Tyler]

there is no predictions, just bet and hope you win

[nikossf]

any way we could work this for nba? I know,.Sagarin is popular for his NCAAB ratings and what not,.but why not get an nba formula?

[nikossf]

also,.any idea if this scrapes the rpi daily? the odds and games, yes,.but what about rpi updates?

[the shadow]

Does sagarin know about injuries? Does he update recent form? the answer is no!!!!

[arwar]

i code these things myself:

here's a quick pomeroy scraper:

http://parlaysrus.com/dl/setup_kenpom.exe again if use desktop icon set properties to point to kenpom folder - or just run the scraper from the folder.

note - button2 is under construction - maybe i will combine the 2 (pom & sag) with pinny lines

p.s. for you excel guys there is a file kp-final.csv that you can jerk right in to Excel.

[arwar]

on the sagarin scraper - if you see something like:

<------>
555 SAN DIEGO +11.5 SAN DIEGO 61.39
556 SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 SAN FRANCISCO 73.59 -5.15 <--------------- -16.1
<------>

the -5.15 means that Sagarin picks San Fran by more than 5 points against the Pinny line - the home field adjusted, calculated Sagarin line is -16 vs Pinny line of -11.5. 5 is the default differntial you can play around and change it - click OK again. but i don't profess to know what any of it means.

[CHUBNUT]

While on the subject of ratings and MLB coming up who does the board think does the best job by coming closest to the openoing line. Massey looks good but its not something ive dug deep into.

[Peregrine Stoop]

If you track this stuff over the long run, betting pomeroy/sagarin/massey/whomever against the closing line is a loser.

[Pokerjoe]

Just seems funny how his predictions are so close to actual lines. Do you think he influences lines or do lines influence his predictions?

Anyone betting right should be producing numbers that are close to the actual lines. There's nothing "funny" about it, or unique. In any sport, if you're even just following the league closely, and not using a program or making PRs, you should still be able to predict the line on any given game within a point of so of what it ends up being. If you constantly find yourself surprised by lines, you don't have your head in the game and shouldn't be betting. Step number one in this game, really, is getting up to speed on the market. If you can't do that, if you can't somehow produce numbers that are close to the actual lines, then you can't move on to the hard part, step two: getting ahead of the market, getting sharper than the market.

Though I love KenPoms site and his blog, understand that he's really just publicly applying Dean Oliver's principles, he didn't invent much. His contribution is in making good stats available to all, and hopefully creating a more fair appraisal of CBB talent than the lame RPI. What I like about KenPom is his blog, and his player data. His "war" is not against the line, it's against unfair (inaccurate) ratings, most particularly those that lead to wrongful March Madness selection.

[Wrecktangle]

What's interesting is the love/hate relationship almost all of the ratings guys have with the betting public.

Demand for their product is largely driven by punters, and yet almost to a man (I've spoken to a number of them) have huge distain towards us. They mollify themselves by thinking that they serve some higher good like: "getting the right team into March Madness" rather than admitting they make a living by handing out strawberry flavored crack to a bunch of sports junkies.

Sagarin in particular is of this ilk; makes the bulk of his living off his ratings, while spending his day watching reruns of Gilligan's Island. All of his ratings formulas were stolen from other sources, by the way. Perhaps that explains his defensiveness.

[blackbart]

If you track this stuff over the long run, betting pomeroy/sagarin/massey/whomever against the closing line is a loser.

obvious explanation being any differences that are large enough to cause a wager, would be accounted for by an explanation such as injuries or trends.

[Flight]

Sagarin in particular is of this ilk; makes the bulk of his living off his ratings, while spending his day watching reruns of Gilligan's Island. All of his ratings formulas were stolen from other sources, by the way. Perhaps that explains his defensiveness.

His formula has been around since, what, 1980?

About time for him to give it up and fork over the goddamn formula (hehe, I'm a punter and I want my strawberry crack!)

[darkstar77]

on a related note here is a free little scraper calculating Sagarin/Pinny matchups. if anyone is interested i can do same for KenPom. PM me if interested.

http://parlaysrus.com/dl/setup_sag-2.1.15.exe

if you use that one, after installing it you need to edit the properties of the desktop icon to "Start IN" :

"..\\program files\sagarin"

othewise data files will clutter up your desktop.

any way it does:

1. goes to usa today gets latest sagarin ratings
2. goes to pinny and gets rotation and lines
3. matches up each game with sagarin calculated (home field adjusted) lines.
4. points out games with >5 point (user definable) differences between pinny line and sagarin calculated.
5. allows a calculation of projected lines for a future date by clicking on GetSchedule button and entering date (0224 eg)

if a matchup has 000000 in the output, it means, Sagarin name <> Pinny name, but you can manually calculate it

Arwar, sounds like a valuable tool! You dont happen to have a Mac friendly version for that one and the KenPom model do you?

Thanks!

[PRC]

What's interesting is the love/hate relationship almost all of the ratings guys have with the betting public.

Demand for their product is largely driven by punters, and yet almost to a man (I've spoken to a number of them) have huge distain towards us. They mollify themselves by thinking that they serve some higher good like: "getting the right team into March Madness" rather than admitting they make a living by handing out strawberry flavored crack to a bunch of sports junkies.

Sagarin in particular is of this ilk; makes the bulk of his living off his ratings, while spending his day watching reruns of Gilligan's Island. All of his ratings formulas were stolen from other sources, by the way. Perhaps that explains his defensiveness.

Pomeroy did a podcast with Chad Millman, the gambling dude for ESPN.

[Wrecktangle]

His formula has been around since, what, 1980?

About time for him to give it up and fork over the goddamn formula (hehe, I'm a punter and I want my strawberry crack!)

What? Well you certainly haven't been looking very hard.

Elo is the chess rating formula, also used for Soccer, Google it. Predictor was first written about in the Hidden Game of Football by Thorn, et.al. Sagarin's final formula is a mashup between the two.

All this has been largely absorbed by and reflected in the market by the way.

[Wrecktangle]

Pomeroy did a podcast with Chad Millman, the gambling dude for ESPN.

Then he is one of the few.

Bottom line, if you are too lazy to calc your own ratings, then you are too lazy to win at sports as the market reflects these open source figures.

[LT Profits]

Pomeroy is a bettor, he often mentions lines from specific books in his blog.

[nikossf]

Pomeroy did a podcast with Chad Millman, the gambling dude for ESPN.

Where can I find this, PRC??


Nevermind..Found it..

http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=5395837

[nikossf]

Kenpom.com

http://kenpom.com/stats.php?s=RankOR_Pct

Can someone break down and explain each of these. Kinda like a key. Ive emailed through the site but nobody answers. Thanks everyone.


Offense Defense Team Conf AdjTempo AdjOE eFG% TO% OR% FTRate AdjDE eFG% TO% OR% FTRate