any good strategies out there for developing your own line?

**ljump12** · 02-04-11, 08:08 PM

That's like asking if anyone knows how to beat the lines consistently. Yes, some people, and no one that knows, will ever tell you.

**Toples** · 02-05-11, 03:55 AM

you can develop it using only 1 stat, but the question is how good will that line be
you could start with points, goals, runs scored, then adjust line for injuries, then putting in important stats depending on sport
in baseball you would need to count is starting pitcher for example

**dvsbmx** · 02-05-11, 08:16 AM

Anyone know where I can buy seeds for a money tree?

**Peregrine Stoop** · 02-05-11, 08:39 AM

I just look at what the market has already. Beats anything I come up with.

**That Foreign Guy** · 02-06-11, 08:26 AM

Cliff notes:

I like money. I don't like work.

OP, if you actually want to learn something ask specific questions about general issues. So not "someone tell me a profitable model" (your post) but "I'd like to learn more about modelling and have already read the FAQ and conquering risk, I'm having some trouble with the concept of regression analysis though, what's a good way to learn about it?"

Or post dumb s*** and get trolled. Both are fun for me.

**joshschild11** · 02-07-11, 09:46 AM

obviously people are on this forum to share information with each other. i was just looking for another tool to help me. i wasnt looking for someone to give me the algorithm program that billy walters uses. just was looking for something i already didnt know. thx for all the smart remarks

**Pokerjoe** · 02-08-11, 11:34 PM

The best advice I can give a recreational player starting out, a guy who is a fan of the sport he's looking to bet, is this:
First, ask yourself at what spread would you definitely take Team A. Let's say it's the SB and you think you would definitely, no doubt, take the Packers +3. Then ask yourself at what spread you would definitely, no doubt, take the other side.

This actually is very hard for rec players, which is why you need to do it, to get in the habit of looking at the game right. Most players just think "I like the Packers" or "I like the Steelers!" and stop right there. They can't imagine taking the other side.

Imagine taking the other side. Imagine the spread--it won't be available in real life, that isn't the point--imagine the spread that would get you to take the other side. Let's say, though you like GB, you'll take Pitt +10. If you're really square you might say you'd only take Pitt +20, but work on that later. For now, just think about what line you'd take one team at, and at what line you'd take the other.

The mid point between those numbers is where you're setting the line. If it varies enough from the market, bet. If, before the SB for example, you thought, man, I'd love the Pack +3, but yeah, I'd take Pitt +10, then you're setting the line about where it ended up (more or less, given push frequencies; I'm guessing that, I'm not going to calculate it, chill).

**That Foreign Guy** · 02-09-11, 07:19 AM

Push frequencies are important when trying to set a line with this method. You absolutely can't just average the two for NFL.

The other thing is to try and find the lowest price you'd take each side. Whether you do this by going up (won't take pitt +7, won't take Pitt +8, etc until you will take Pitt +10) or down (will take Pitt +20, will take +19, won't take +18) is up to you.

**roanildinho** · 02-09-11, 06:28 PM

I have a great strategy. ^^

**LegitBet** · 02-10-11, 05:05 AM

Pokerjoe
I'm becoming a big fan of your mind
Good job