I have an NHL model that uses a mix of preseason player projections, and current performance of every NHL player to create a theoretical goals for and goals against for each game. It is lineup dependent and each day I check starting goalies/injuries to ensure lineup accuracy.
Anyway, I have had a problem with it pricing New Jersey Devil games, they have been completely wrong for about a week and a half. Last night, my model had the fair price at +/- 200 with the Devils being +200, while the Devils were +130. Tonight my model has the fair price at +/- 108 with the Devils being +108, while the Devils are -145.
My model isn't breaking down for any other team, as I have been able to find small value, or my line is right on.
I know the Devils are on a hot streak, but I find it hard to believe it is driving the line that much. Or maybe my model is completely off.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Or any general advice on this type of problem in any modeling. I am fairly new to this, as this is the second model I have ever made, and any help would be greatly appreciated.
Anyway, I have had a problem with it pricing New Jersey Devil games, they have been completely wrong for about a week and a half. Last night, my model had the fair price at +/- 200 with the Devils being +200, while the Devils were +130. Tonight my model has the fair price at +/- 108 with the Devils being +108, while the Devils are -145.
My model isn't breaking down for any other team, as I have been able to find small value, or my line is right on.
I know the Devils are on a hot streak, but I find it hard to believe it is driving the line that much. Or maybe my model is completely off.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Or any general advice on this type of problem in any modeling. I am fairly new to this, as this is the second model I have ever made, and any help would be greatly appreciated.