Tailing posters in sub forums

**DevilCheese** · 01-30-11, 12:01 AM

"Hot posters" will most likely just be variance because of the small sample size, anyone can get "hot" over the course of a week or so. Same goes for cold streaks. If you're going to tail someone, make sure it's someone with a long term winning track record, not just bouncing from capper to capper based on who's hot. Also important to make sure you're getting the same lines/value as the ones they post.

Also a lot of guys probably start off hot because the ones that start off cold stop posting.

**lemart5** · 01-30-11, 12:18 AM

-EV proposition most posters post the wrong side follow at your own risk.

**xyz** · 01-30-11, 12:23 AM

You need to elaborate on how you find a "hot" poster. Over a certain win percentage? Over how many games? I think your idea has potential if the following are true:

1. There are some posters that are consistently +EV on this forum.
2. The +EV posters consistently post their picks online
3. You can consistently bet at the numbers that they bet at.

I have no doubt that 1 is true. I have doubts that condition 2 and 3 hold.

**AbeFroman** · 01-30-11, 12:30 AM

I would consider using the picks not necessarily as a way to base your picks directly, but as a way to narrow the card, and then do you own research and capping and go from there.

I'll be honest, I don't have the time to cap every game of a monster CBB card like today. So instead, I head on over to the CBB forum, look at what games have been brought up, cap them, and then decide play or no play. It's efficient yet doesn't force you to rely on others for your picks.

**Data** · 01-30-11, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by jayfly

For the past several months I have been tailing various posters in the sub forums. I track several posters picks for a while and choose the strongest ones then tail them. I did very well in baseball, ok in nfl but struggled in cfb. So far hockey has been ok but I have been getting my ass handed to me in basketball, both ncaa and nba. Down nearly 30 units just this month. Seems like everyone is around 50 % or worse for the month.

I have no doubt that I can make money doing this because i track the picks and records daily and know they are legit. I just cant figure why things are so bad this month. I guess variance? Lots of guys were very hot in Nov and Dec so cooling off is normal.

I have made nearly 300 bets this month. I have been bouncing between posters to find hot ones but just cant find one. I think that i am making too many bets and tailing too many different posters.

Should I just pick 1 or two posters per sport and stick with them? or just chalk this month up to a bad month? or does anyone have any other suggestions on what I should be doing. thanks

For starters, congrats on finding the right forum to answer your question. Paging Justin7.

**Thremp** · 01-30-11, 01:53 AM

You should lose solidly long term with this strategy.

**jgilmartin** · 01-30-11, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by xyz

You need to elaborate on how you find a "hot" poster. Over a certain win percentage? Over how many games? I think your idea has potential if the following are true:

1. There are some posters that are consistently +EV on this forum.
2. The +EV posters consistently post their picks online
3. You can consistently bet at the numbers that they bet at.

I have no doubt that 1 is true. I have doubts that condition 2 and 3 hold.

This.

Originally posted by Thremp

You should lose solidly long term with this strategy.

This also, I believe.

**jayfly** · 01-30-11, 06:14 AM

i have tracked several posters here as well as other forums, only track people that post sensible write ups with their picks, post their records every day or so, and have a winning % of at least 56 or higher. I track their records based on totals, sides, units etc so I know the records are legit. After january I will have had 4 winning months and 4 losing months doing this.

An example would be I'm a winner from the cbb forum. On Jan 4th he was 40-14 and now he is 51-24. Still a great record but just above .500 this month.

I am very observant of line changes and if the line has moved to a point where I feel it is not still a good play I pass, or even go with the other side.

I have just been straight betting, same unit size for all bets. I have always felt this was the way to go, espec in this case. If someone is hitting 58 % on a consistent basis I dont think there is a need to do anything other then straight bet.I agree I need to stick with people with a consistent track record. Over the course of time I will figure out the consistent ones from the others.

I am just looking for feedback so I appreciate any given to me. I have not been doing this for very long so I need as much info as possible. Please dont just tell me if you think I will lose or make money but please tell me why u feel that way. I think that with fine tuning I can def make $ long term this way. I do think I need to wager on a lot less games, 300 in a month is just too many.

**Dark Horse** · 01-30-11, 06:54 AM

Too many unknowns. One obvious problem is that you wouldn't notice somebody until he went on a winning streak. By the time you jump on board he may already experience a correction. If you're going to take this approach it may be safest to focus on guys who hit about 50% longterm playing underdog moneylines. Also, a 57-58% winner is harder to recognize than you may think. It doesn't jump out, unless you have a longterm view (several years). And most posters don't post longterm picks. So you're on thin ice all the way.

**jennahazeplays** · 01-30-11, 09:53 AM

can be profitable if done correct
y

**Thremp** · 01-30-11, 02:04 PM

Because you're data snooping -EV bettors to delude yourself into thinking that their positions hold +EV.

**LLXC** · 01-30-11, 02:07 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

You should lose solidly long term with this strategy.

Definitely this.

**byronbb** · 01-30-11, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by jayfly

I am just looking for feedback so I appreciate any given to me. I have not been doing this for very long so I need as much info as possible. Please dont just tell me if you think I will lose or make money but please tell me why u feel that way. I hope that with fine tuning I have found a surefire way to make easy money from public information available on the internet. I do think I need to wager on a lot less games, 300 in a month is just too many.

I translated this for you. People who beat sports betting don't bother to post about it on the internet, that would be a waste of time and by proxy, money.

**Thremp** · 01-30-11, 09:26 PM

That is not true. You can make a nice 5 figure income from a blog. You don't have to find someone. They will find you. They will offer you low-mid five figures (depending on the market) risk free.

You just need to be really ******* good. And you can't keep a record like RAS. Anyone willing to offer you a sick deal will be able to see through manipulative silliness. Or they'll go broke quickly.

**ProfoundTechniqe** · 01-30-11, 10:24 PM

Originally posted by byronbb

People who beat sports betting don't bother to post about it on the internet

Huh. I thought reverse write-ups were here before me. How gratifying!

**Thremp** · 01-30-11, 11:05 PM

Write ups are usually narrative fallacy fueled self-delusion.

**suicidekings** · 01-31-11, 12:16 AM

With respect to the downturn in success rates in NBA/NCAAB in January, books only have so many resources available to them and with football virtually over in January (just bowl games and NFL playoffs), they can focus more on basketball now than they were able to earlier in the year. Plus, NBA trades are happening and the all star break is just around the corner. These factors can disrupt handicapping models/strategies.

Or maybe its just coincidence. Either way, not enough info unless you can examine the methodology of the cappers.

**Justin7** · 01-31-11, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

With respect to the downturn in success rates in NBA/NCAAB in January, books only have so many resources available to them and with football virtually over in January (just bowl games and NFL playoffs), they can focus more on basketball now than they were able to earlier in the year. Plus, NBA trades are happening and the all star break is just around the corner. These factors can disrupt handicapping models/strategies.

Or maybe its just coincidence. Either way, not enough info unless you can examine the methodology of the cappers.

Starting lineups settle down a bit in January. Conference play is typically more predictable than non-conference play. Analysts have a lot more games by January. All of these contribute to lines that are tougher to beat.

**calm** · 01-31-11, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by Thremp

That is not true. You can make a nice 5 figure income from a blog. You don't have to find someone. They will find you. They will offer you low-mid five figures (depending on the market) risk free.

You just need to be really ******* good. And you can't keep a record like RAS. Anyone willing to offer you a sick deal will be able to see through manipulative silliness. Or they'll go broke quickly.

**Optional** · 01-31-11, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by jayfly

Should I just pick 1 or two posters per sport and stick with them? or just chalk this month up to a bad month? or does anyone have any other suggestions on what I should be doing. thanks

Maybe stick with the tippers you have developed trust in but start drilling down to work out their overall break even odds on different types of bets. Then concentrate on the bets/sports/leagues/days they do best with as a group.

You could also try limiting yourself to only tailing bets where you can get better odds than the tipper. Chances are that would help profitabilty a lot.

If you are serious enough to analyse everyone else's tips properly, you can likely come up with your own stats based selection system that will give you a more reliable set of tips to work with though.

**That Foreign Guy** · 01-31-11, 05:09 PM

Getting better odds than the tipper is a massive warning sign IMO. If the line move against them then they are probably not a good tipper.

**LegitBet** · 02-01-11, 12:51 AM

As usual I agree with dark horse. One who can hit 50% with ML dogs is a keeper, for SO many reasons.

**Thremp** · 02-01-11, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by LegitBet

As usual I agree with dark horse. One who can hit 50% with ML dogs is a keeper, for SO many reasons.

Baseball is coming up. You choose the picker and lets bet. I hate money.