pinny lean question for Justin7

[vcj16]

Pinnacle Pulse article by Simon Noble:
In addition to detailing the sharp action in this column, it is also worth being aware of the “Pinnacle Lean”, which you can view at anytime by comparing our NFL lines against several other books when they post their lines. At Pinnacle Sports we use -104 style pricing on NFL sides, which offers bettors up to 60% better value than other books. If the market has the Colts at -14 -110 while we have it at -14-111 following a 7 cent move, it’s a strong indication that: a) the Colts are the right side; and b) the market will creep up to -14.5 (or higher).


is this statement true or complete bs?

[Justin7]

Generally true when I wrote it, and it still is.

[RickySteve]

Did you write all of those articles?

[Justin7]

I wrote the first 86 articles (or something close to that), except for 2 when my father passed away.

[WendysRox]

I vote for complete bs... but we all have opinions

[saratoga1927]

I'm going with bs as well.

[JustinBieber]

I vote for complete bs... but we all have opinions

Reread your own posts. You're in no position to call BS on this.

[Thremp]

Statements like "the right side" are complete nonsense and indicative of someone having a fundamental misunderstanding of what sports betting is about (its a numbers game of Bayesian probability). There are no "wrong sides". Unless the outcome is impossible, every side is correct at a certain number.

[specialronnie29]

Not true for 2H but game lines yes

[Winner_13]

why not true for 2nd half?


pro bettor told me that they do not believe in the pinny lean and books do everything they can to make u think of everything BUT the game

[specialronnie29]

suppose it's the superbowl and pinn moves packers -2.5 to -111

then no bettor will take it because they can get -110 at many other books at pretty good limits. only a bettor wanting to get down more than 100k will consider taking -111.

If it's 2H, pinn has far and away the best limits. If they post the Lakers at +5 -105 when they should be +1 pro will hit it for the max

if pinn moves to +5 -111 the pro will probably hit it again as:
even though other places may be offering +5 -110 but they offer significantly lower limits
they may be banned elsewhere
mostly care about fund security = not too many books left to get lots of action down
if he stops to look around another pro may hit lakers and then theyre -120

pinn therefore moves line more aggressively because its the only way to stop the pro from making multiple max bets. if its the superbowl pregame then that bettor can still get pretty good action elsewhere and also has the time to do so unlike 2h where things move faster

[Winner_13]

well explained.

thxs