Poisson Calculator questions

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  • vicwootn
    SBR Rookie
    • 01-13-11
    • 20

    #1
    Poisson Calculator questions
    when the 'proposition' ends up .5 the calculator is easy for me to understand. however when proposition ends up .0 i am confused of output to use. am i to use 'less than 12' or 'at most 12' for an under? do i factor in 'exactly 12'? keep in mind these are for bastardized NFL and NBA pricing so i'm not sure if that effects 'exactly 12'/push. there was no explanation in the provided example on the calculator page.

    my second question is, when your poisson calc takes a number like 10.8 and rounds up to 11 for the proposition. do you compensate with your expected average?
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    Figure out the percentage of results over x.0, and under x.0. The ratio can be used to set a moneyline.

    For example, if a result goes over 10.0 40%, under 30% (and lands on 10 30%) the price on the over should be (40/30) * -100, or -133. Under should be +133.

    You should not have to round using a Poisson calculator. I'd be scared of rounding errors that big.
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