A hedging question for people who know EV and such

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  • warriorfan707
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-29-08
    • 13698

    #1
    A hedging question for people who know EV and such
    Ok so I threw down 200 to win 772 on this bet


    Jan 12 07:35 PM
    Jan 12 07:35 PM
    Jan 12 06:20 PM
    INTERNET / -1 Jan 12 06:19 PM
    NBA
    NBA
    NBA
    PARLAY
    PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
    [721] MIA HEAT -325
    [723] LAKERS o206½-110
    [2711] 2H SA SPURS -4-105

    200 / 774


    The first leg went through and won. I am almost certain the Heat dont lose to the Clips.

    So my question is... would it be +EV to bet 220 to win 200 on the Lakers under in this case???
  • warriorfan707
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-29-08
    • 13698

    #2
    wheres Sharpcat?
    Comment
    • FourLengthsClear
      SBR MVP
      • 12-29-10
      • 3808

      #3
      The line has not moved and betting opposing sides at -110 will never be +EV

      Hedging in this situation is never the correct thing to do unless something has fundamentally changed that would change your opinion about the initial bet.
      Comment
      • RickySteve
        Restricted User
        • 01-31-06
        • 3415

        #4
        Originally posted by FourLengthsClear
        Hedging in this situation is never the correct thing to do unless something has fundamentally changed that would change your opinion about the initial bet.
        Not true.
        Comment
        • DevilCheese
          SBR Sharp
          • 07-18-09
          • 485

          #5
          looks like you got burned pretty badly if you tried to hedge. why make 3-team parlays if you're not gonna ride them out? hedging a 3-teamer just turns it into a 2-teamer with worse odds, unless you're gonna try to middle it or something.
          Comment
          • subs
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 1412

            #6
            Originally posted by RickySteve
            Not true.
            could u please elaborate - is it because the line has changed and now u are overbetting? or want to middle?

            could u please share? i'll tell u a joke...
            Comment
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