Is this bet a +EV play?

[subs]

dude if you want to win - i suggest you read some books and the tank here. it will make all the difference for you.

you will quickly be able to see who is good and who is not. there is a list of like 20 people here that are sharp enough and helpful enough to really learn from. IMHO reverse line movement is a tool but not strictly enough to be printing money... otherwise every1 would be rich, including me

70% of bets (even if you could trust that number???) does not mean 70% of money. sometimes sharps are playing games that i'm not going to explain here, but the tank will.

watch justin7 videos.

I think LSU and Auburn cover >75% of the time.

i have not checked to see if this has been true or not this season but normally teams cover 50%. but lets say a team has covered 75% in their previous few games guess what the chance of them covering the next game is? 50%.

google gambler's fallacy, bonus whoring (this will help you get organized and grow ur BR).

for a beginner may i suggest NOT playing parlays. also do not follow touts they lie and then lose in that order...

good luck.

[Richards]

dude if you want to win - i suggest you read some books and the tank here. it will make all the difference for you.

watch justin7 videos.

google gambler's fallacy, bonus whoring (this will help you get organized and grow ur BR).

for a beginner may i suggest NOT playing parlays. also do not follow touts they lie and then lose in that order...

good luck.

All good advice. Understanding the range of cognitive biases and other psychological quirks that books and casinos take advantage of and help make 95% of gamblers losers.

This alone will help you avoid some of the common obvious mistakes people make like chasing and putting a majority or all of their bankroll on one "sure thing."

Knowing these biases isn't a handicapping technique per se so I'm slightly off topic, but it's an important tool to avoid some of these traps that will lose you a lot of $$$.

[jonny]

illfuuptn, joking?

[durito]

sweet thread

[CaptainHindsight]

watch justin7 videos.

good luck.

Where can one find these videos?

[HoulihansTX]

Its takes math(statistics) based formulas to figure out what percentages a team has at winning?

Its not some innate thought process, of watching teams play.

[noober]

agree with the first answer

[userpick]

Thanks alot guys. Books have been ordered

[illfuuptn]

^^^^mostly good advice. Indeed you must understand that %action is not % money. Sharps bet more on average. Good point to whoever said gamblers fallacy etc. That whole "this team has historically covered following back to back road wins" is total and complete bullshit and anyone in the tank here will agree with that. As for databases, like I said, it helps them arrive at the same conclusion one can get from watching market action and having intimate team
knowledge. Do you think the sb doesn't use power ranking too guys? That's a waste of time doing what the book does for you.

[kingdom]

i doubt kc +3 is printing money. ravens are superior team and have played tougher competition to achieve a better record and home field will not save the chiefs and keep that game within 3.

[illfuuptn]

i doubt kc +3 is printing money. ravens are superior team and have played tougher competition to achieve a better record and home field will not save the chiefs and keep that game within 3.

Example of terrible handicapping. Take note of this badness.

[Full Time Hobo]

Generally good info in the thread.
pay attention to line movement and look further into what may be driving it...
Don't just bet a game on what you "think" unless all you want is action and don't care if you win or lose...

If you're a beginner pick up a book to start unless this is a recreational thing and you don't plan to get serious...