Why doesn't it move more?

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  • illfuuptn
    SBR MVP
    • 03-17-10
    • 1860

    #1
    Why doesn't it move more?
    I have hit hockey totals at a rate of 58% this year at an average line of -106. Bookmaker obviously reacts when I place my bets for hockey. The line almost always moves 5 or 10 points. My question is:why don't they move it way more?

    For example: if a line starts at 05.5 -110 u5.5 -110 and I bet, shouldn't they move the line to about -135 on the side I bet to more accurately match my 58% instead of only moving it to -115 or-120 as they typically do?
  • Justin7
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 07-31-06
    • 8577

    #2
    There are two likely causes I know (and more I don't).
    1. How big is your sample size? Maybe you're likely to hit 55%, so the market is reflecting a 10-cent move, because
    2. The right side usually never gets "all the way there". sharps pass on 52% plays at -110... So yes, it should move 10 cents, but it doesn't due to market inefficiency.
    Comment
    • Tuna Fish Riot
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-29-10
      • 539

      #3
      lol, your thread title is so penis.
      Comment
      • yisman
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 09-01-08
        • 75682

        #4
        This is complete nonsense.
        [quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
        [/quote]

        [quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]
        Comment
        • illfuuptn
          SBR MVP
          • 03-17-10
          • 1860

          #5
          Originally posted by Justin7
          There are two likely causes I know (and more I don't).
          1. How big is your sample size? Maybe you're likely to hit 55%, so the market is reflecting a 10-cent move, because
          2. The right side usually never gets "all the way there". sharps pass on 52% plays at -110... So yes, it should move 10 cents, but it doesn't due to market inefficiency.
          Good points
          Comment
          • Cookie Monster
            SBR MVP
            • 12-05-08
            • 2251

            #6
            If they move the line too much, they could be an easy target for line manipulation.

            Besides "this year" is a sample too small, only 7 days
            Comment
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