Who controls the pace of an NBA game?

**Red_Sux** · 03-21-08, 01:29 PM

the refs...especailly if they have money on the game. they can let them play out or stall the game whenever possible.

**Dark Horse** · 03-21-08, 01:41 PM

The pace of the game is already build into the line. Defensive intensity is not. This comes out in big games. For instance, check out Houston's O/U record against the NBA's top layer teams.

**Arnold** · 03-21-08, 01:41 PM

How can a ref make a player pass and run, or just slowly dribble the ball from one side of the court to the other? I think it has more to do with a game plan.

**Dark Horse** · 03-21-08, 01:50 PM

The refs can totally kill the momentum of a game, but it tends to lead to higher scores. Free throws stop the clock and players in foul trouble play soft defense.

**Arnold** · 03-21-08, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

The pace of the game is already build into the line. Defensive intensity is not. This comes out in big games. For instance, check out Houston's O/U record against the NBA's top layer teams.

This season, Houston playing teams above .6 winning %, the OU record is 5-14 (O-U). While playing teams below .4, the OU record is 10-6. I saw this trend before, that stronger teams usually go under (475-518), while crap teams play over (473-420).

**Dark Horse** · 03-21-08, 02:53 PM

Originally posted by Arnold

This season, Houston playing teams above .6 winning %, the OU record is 5-14 (O-U). While playing teams below .4, the OU record is 10-6. I saw this trend before, that stronger teams usually go under (475-518), while crap teams play over (473-420).

Good teams can turn up the defense when it counts. And it counts against other good teams. (I would throw out the first month of the season, because teams need time to click defensively). Usually it's possible to select a few teams to ride for unders. But, as with all in-season trends, sample size is small, so jump off quickly if the trend stops producing. Books are fast to adjust.

**willyback** · 03-28-08, 10:51 AM

The refs... They can't shift player momentum from one team to the other with a few trivial blows of the whistle.

**The HG** · 03-28-08, 12:36 PM

It depends on many factors often specific to one particular game or point in time for one or both teams. Some teams are more easily influenced than others, some are more influencing than others, and it happens more or less depending on other circumstances surrounding a game.

**Rufus** · 03-28-08, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by Arnold

I know some teams like to play at a fast pace, others at a slow pace. When such 2 teams meet each other, who controls the pace of the game? For example, today Houston is playing Golden State. A slow team vs. a fast team. The answer to this question will help figure out the over/under of a game. Any thoughts?

Simple answer is look at the over/under for the game and that'll tell you who controls the pace more. So many factors are at play here, and anyone who has successfully modeled this stuff is not going to go blurting it out.

Bet the over when Donaghy's refing. Oh wait, he isn't anymore. Shucks.