NBA push chart smoothing

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  • subs
    SBR MVP
    • 04-30-10
    • 1412

    #1
    NBA push chart smoothing
    Happy New Hangover

    I've just got a DB for the NBA and spent a while cleaning it up. it goes back to 1995.

    so for my push chart (which i need fairly accurate) i like some simple smoothing techniques.

    can any1 help...
  • Peregrine Stoop
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-23-09
    • 869

    #2
    learn some applied statistics

    there are no set rules for this type of thing anywayz

    or ...
    Comment
    • Justin7
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-31-06
      • 8577

      #3
      What sorts of problems are you having? What results do you see without smoothing that you don't accept as accurate?
      Comment
      • subs
        SBR MVP
        • 04-30-10
        • 1412

        #4
        I am already doing an applied stats course online with stattrek- but i thought that asking the community here for their experiences with this project would be beneficial, and because there is no single answer, may even start a debate.

        as you guys would know well, there are some 0%... i mean near the edges. also there are some very small sample sizes in places. there are also some numbers that look wrong....

        also i want to look for subsets, home/away, totals etc. (that are better teased than ATS) so this will dilute my charts even more and make smoothing "by eye" a very long and messy job.

        so because i do not know where yet, like a do in the NFL (according to my, and others' commonly available numbers) i feel like i need to make the whole chart, edges et all, as tight as i can without wasting too much time. maybe something i only use when the numbers do not look good... how do you even 0.25% kelly without trusting ur numbers?

        any feedback much appreciated.

        Comment
        • Justin7
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-31-06
          • 8577

          #5
          Subs,

          If you are getting 0% push rates for many numbers, I have to wonder how large your sample size is. How many games are you using?
          Comment
          • subs
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 1412

            #6
            the NBA set goes back to 1995 all games i believe. i mean around the edges that i have 0% on a particular MOV

            i have been advised to merge 3 or so NBA DBs as a good starting point. i imagine the NBA plays i am looking 4 r harder to find than NFL 1's and not as common.

            BTW today is a good day - enjoy!
            Last edited by subs; 01-03-11, 05:04 PM.
            Comment
            • Justin7
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-31-06
              • 8577

              #7
              When you get to spreads above 15 or so, you might check to see if the push rates are all similar. I would expect they are (or treat them as if they are).
              Comment
              • subs
                SBR MVP
                • 04-30-10
                • 1412

                #8
                thanks Justin7
                Comment
                • Peregrine Stoop
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 869

                  #9
                  Originally posted by subs
                  the NBA set goes back to 1995 all games i believe. i mean around the edges that i have 0% on a particular MOV i have been advised to merge 3 or so NBA DBs as a good starting point. i imagine the NBA plays i am looking 4 r harder to find than NFL 1's and not as common. BTW today is a good day - enjoy!
                  0% obviously doesn't pass the sniff test
                  Don't forget to think in order to follow set rules
                  Comment
                  • subs
                    SBR MVP
                    • 04-30-10
                    • 1412

                    #10
                    Roasthawg rulz - any1 need a DB, message RoastHawg - really!

                    or go to gambling DBS dot com.

                    so far can't recommend it enough. BTW i had to ask him, he did not come touting anything....
                    Comment
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