I got a little excited with all the line movement in the OU/UConn game and even though I really wanted to take OU, the late money came in and pushed it off -14 before I had a chance to make my real bet on it. I attempted the following though, hoping to get through some rollover and maybe side the game if the line was tight.
$165 to win $150 on OU -14 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on OU -16 (-110)
$155 to win $140 on UConn +15 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on UConn +17 (-110)
As I said, part of this is just doing rollover/hedging, but just how bad of -EV do these plays work out to?
OU wins by less than 14 = -$35
OU wins by 14 = +$131
OU wins by 15 = +$141
OU wins by 16 = +86
OU wins by 17 = +86
OU wins by 18+ = -$14
I figure I'm averaging a $25 bet to win $111 that the game lands between 14-17. So 4.5:1 on the game landing 14-17. That's a terrible bet.
Is what I did really as bad as those odds, or is there anything to justify what I did aside from "it gets through $500 worth of rollover at places where I took good bonuses"?
Thanks.
$165 to win $150 on OU -14 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on OU -16 (-110)
$155 to win $140 on UConn +15 (-110)
$100 to win $91 on UConn +17 (-110)
As I said, part of this is just doing rollover/hedging, but just how bad of -EV do these plays work out to?
OU wins by less than 14 = -$35
OU wins by 14 = +$131
OU wins by 15 = +$141
OU wins by 16 = +86
OU wins by 17 = +86
OU wins by 18+ = -$14
I figure I'm averaging a $25 bet to win $111 that the game lands between 14-17. So 4.5:1 on the game landing 14-17. That's a terrible bet.
Is what I did really as bad as those odds, or is there anything to justify what I did aside from "it gets through $500 worth of rollover at places where I took good bonuses"?
Thanks.
