I am posting to apologize to anyone I offended with my amateurish comments from prior posts. I took the advice of some notables on this site, and began reading my first book, (Sharp Sports Betting) and have a completely different respect for the world of sports betting. I plan on reading more books before betting in order to attain an edge, but for now, have a question that I hope isn't too dumb.
Poisson Props, as indicated by Stanford Wong and others seems to be the easiest way to make money in the world of sports betting, with the most horrific lines. He actually makes it seem too easy in his book. Find the average, plug in the prop, and poof, you have your EV. However, the books know this, making a positive EV difficult to find; much like arbing or hedging. I also notice for many props, one cannot use Poisson for, as the events can happen in multiples (points especially). Is there any way to plug in points into some sort of formula that one can gain access to, as Poisson isn't quite cutting it. Thanks.
Poisson Props, as indicated by Stanford Wong and others seems to be the easiest way to make money in the world of sports betting, with the most horrific lines. He actually makes it seem too easy in his book. Find the average, plug in the prop, and poof, you have your EV. However, the books know this, making a positive EV difficult to find; much like arbing or hedging. I also notice for many props, one cannot use Poisson for, as the events can happen in multiples (points especially). Is there any way to plug in points into some sort of formula that one can gain access to, as Poisson isn't quite cutting it. Thanks.