My Apologies and a Question

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  • Firefox14
    SBR Sharp
    • 09-09-10
    • 257

    #1
    My Apologies and a Question
    I am posting to apologize to anyone I offended with my amateurish comments from prior posts. I took the advice of some notables on this site, and began reading my first book, (Sharp Sports Betting) and have a completely different respect for the world of sports betting. I plan on reading more books before betting in order to attain an edge, but for now, have a question that I hope isn't too dumb.

    Poisson Props, as indicated by Stanford Wong and others seems to be the easiest way to make money in the world of sports betting, with the most horrific lines. He actually makes it seem too easy in his book. Find the average, plug in the prop, and poof, you have your EV. However, the books know this, making a positive EV difficult to find; much like arbing or hedging. I also notice for many props, one cannot use Poisson for, as the events can happen in multiples (points especially). Is there any way to plug in points into some sort of formula that one can gain access to, as Poisson isn't quite cutting it. Thanks.
  • princecharles
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-22-10
    • 827

    #2
    i heard good things about that book....think i'
    ll read it
    Comment
    • Justin7
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 07-31-06
      • 8577

      #3
      Firefox,

      Prop betting isn't quite this easy, but it isn't much harder. If you play at the lower rated books (C or lower) that offer props, there will be free money dripping everywhere. The A rated books are tougher to beat, but a selective prop player can still hold 10% vs Pinnacle and Greek props.

      re: point props. If you are dealing with an event that doesn't go up in singles, you need to find a way to convert it into singles. For example, if you were looking at points scored by a basketball team, a typical offensive possession might score 1.6 points when there is a score, or 0 on other possessions. If you were looking at only scoring possessions, you might divide the points scored by 1.6 to get a Poisson approximixation.
      Comment
      • TomG
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-29-07
        • 500

        #4
        Originally posted by Firefox14
        Find the average, plug in the prop, and poof, you have your EV.
        Finding the best average to use can sometimes be quite challenging.
        Comment
        • Firefox14
          SBR Sharp
          • 09-09-10
          • 257

          #5
          Originally posted by Justin7
          Firefox,

          Prop betting isn't quite this easy, but it isn't much harder. If you play at the lower rated books (C or lower) that offer props, there will be free money dripping everywhere. The A rated books are tougher to beat, but a selective prop player can still hold 10% vs Pinnacle and Greek props.

          re: point props. If you are dealing with an event that doesn't go up in singles, you need to find a way to convert it into singles. For example, if you were looking at points scored by a basketball team, a typical offensive possession might score 1.6 points when there is a score, or 0 on other possessions. If you were looking at only scoring possessions, you might divide the points scored by 1.6 to get a Poisson approximixation.

          Justin7,

          Thank you for the advice. This makes sense.
          Comment
          • Firefox14
            SBR Sharp
            • 09-09-10
            • 257

            #6
            Originally posted by TomG
            Finding the best average to use can sometimes be quite challenging.
            Yes, I was looking at a prop the other day for football receptions with the over/under at 1. While his average was 1.5 receptions, he had only had 1 reception each for the last four games (weeks). And the juice was extreme so I stayed away from it because I figured it was a gamble. If only it were black and white, but then again, it can't be that easy.
            Comment
            • princecharles
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 11-22-10
              • 827

              #7
              i've seen what i think is interesting in prop pricing by books...they will go crazy high on juice rather than change the prop. for example free throws made by shaq may be 4 1/2 -115...people bet the over like crazy and the juice changes but not the 4 1/2.
              Comment
              • Peregrine Stoop
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 10-23-09
                • 869

                #8
                if only everything hit those pretty distributions

                try using Weibull
                Comment
                • princecharles
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-22-10
                  • 827

                  #9
                  any response to my point?







                  '
                  Comment
                  • Justin7
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 07-31-06
                    • 8577

                    #10
                    Originally posted by princecharles
                    any response to my point?
                    '
                    In many cases, adjusting the juice won't be enough.

                    If you think the fair price on Over/under sacks is 3.1, and the offer 4.5 initially... price moves to 4.5 Under -170

                    Would you take that? When prices are horribly wrong, moving the juice slowly will bleed a book.
                    Comment
                    • princecharles
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-22-10
                      • 827

                      #11
                      actually i was asking shy don't they adjust the actual O/U number, rather than adjust the juice so heavily?
                      thanks Justin
                      Comment
                      • Justin7
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 07-31-06
                        • 8577

                        #12
                        Originally posted by princecharles
                        actually i was asking shy don't they adjust the actual O/U number, rather than adjust the juice so heavily?
                        thanks Justin
                        Some books have an irrational fear of getting middled.

                        Others aren't sure how to calculate the fair movement when the move the line 1/2 a sack on a prop.

                        If the old line was over 4.5 sacks -110/-110, and you take a limit bet at -110 and -120 on the over, what should the fair price be on over 5? If you don't know, it is safer to move to -135/+115 then guess.
                        Comment
                        • TomG
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 10-29-07
                          • 500

                          #13
                          Originally posted by princecharles
                          actually i was asking shy don't they adjust the actual O/U number, rather than adjust the juice so heavily?
                          thanks Justin
                          Reasons why a lines manager would prefer to adjust the terms rather than the handicap.

                          1) To encourage action on the other side.
                          2) Risk preference that avoids exposure to a middle.
                          3) Uncertainty on the value of the half number and thus fear of making an over-adjustment.
                          4) Laziness
                          Comment
                          • spargament
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-22-09
                            • 1739

                            #14
                            Originally posted by TomG
                            Reasons why a lines manager would prefer to adjust the terms rather than the handicap.

                            1) To encourage action on the other side.
                            2) Risk preference that avoids exposure to a middle.
                            3) Uncertainty on the value of the half number and thus fear of making an over-adjustment.
                            4) Laziness
                            At the A rated books I can't imagine it goes beyond the fear of being middled while still encouraging action on side in question.
                            Comment
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