Predicting the line

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  • dirk93
    SBR Rookie
    • 10-17-09
    • 48

    #1
    Predicting the line
    I have a method for the NBA that predicts the no-vig moneyline. My question is, how much different should it be for it to be considered an edge and not just noise? For example, many of my no-vig lines are within 10-15 cents to the books no-vig moneyline.

    My no-vig line/Book no-vig line
    Dallas 111/119
    OKC -111/-119


    Also, is it correct to say that if I have an edge on the moneyline, then I have an edge on the spread as well?
  • TomG
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 10-29-07
    • 500

    #2
    Originally posted by dirk93
    I have a method for the NBA that predicts the no-vig moneyline. My question is, how much different should it be for it to be considered an edge and not just noise? For example, many of my no-vig lines are within 10-15 cents to the books no-vig moneyline.
    How well you trust you model? If it's super sharp, then sure bet stuff that's just a few cents different than your no-vig line. More likely, your model's no-vig moneyline output is only a rough estimate of the actual value. Consider the inputs you are using. Try varying those a small amount to see how it impacts your output. You'll want to build some margin of error into your output to account for all types of noise.

    Originally posted by dirk93
    Also, is it correct to say that if I have an edge on the moneyline, then I have an edge on the spread as well?
    Likely, but not necessarily. They are two separate, but related markets.
    Comment
    • dirk93
      SBR Rookie
      • 10-17-09
      • 48

      #3
      Is there anyway to convert a moneyline to spread if you have the total? I know the calculator on sbr does a rough estimate, but I am looking for something more specific.
      Comment
      • TomG
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 10-29-07
        • 500

        #4
        1) Convert your ML into a win percentage.
        2) Starting with the 1 and going up, find out how often each spread pushes in percentage terms.
        3) Take your ML's win percentage from (1) and being subtracting points from (2) until the ML number is closest to 50%. Stop and see how many points you've used. That's a rough estimate of the fair spread.
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