NCAAF Push Charts

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  • SparJMU
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-10
    • 1648

    #1
    NCAAF Push Charts
    I apologize in advance if this is a dumb question..........

    So last night I was doing my standard procedure of shopping lines for the bowl game hoping to find some arbitrage/middle opportunities. A local had Southern Miss +3, and Matchbook had Louisville -2.5 (+104) or Louisville -3 (+120).

    I locked in $550 to win $500 with the local, and was trying to determine the highest EV between my two Louisville options. Really the only question I am asking here, is how do I determine the probability that Louisville is going to win by exactly 3. Using a push chart I determined 6%, but is that correct? Or is it a 3% chance that Lousville wins by 3 and a 3% chance that Southern Miss wins by 3? Like I said, stupid question but something is not clicking for me.

    Anyway, using 6% push rate I came to the following numbers.......

    Betting the -2.5 line, 6% push rate, I came to an ROI of 1.6%.
    Betting the -3 line, 6% push rate, I came to an ROI of 2.1%.

    So based on my calculation, and with the total as high as 60, and with my insecurity as to whether I should even be using a push rate as high as 6%, I convinced myself that taking the Lousivlle -3 line was my smartest investment, which obviously failed miserably for me.

    Feedback?
  • SparJMU
    SBR MVP
    • 02-18-10
    • 1648

    #2
    Any thoughts on this?

    6% vs. 3%?
    Comment
    • sharpcat
      Restricted User
      • 12-19-09
      • 4516

      #3
      just over 6% of the time the favorite wins by exactly 3.
      Comment
      • mminkovski
        SBR MVP
        • 06-22-07
        • 1077

        #4
        the push probability is about 6%
        did you middle it with matchbook or just took the -3 at +120 to lock a small profit?
        Comment
        • SparJMU
          SBR MVP
          • 02-18-10
          • 1648

          #5
          I took the -3 because my EV calculation told me that had a higher return. Because of the push I actually had to pay $50 to my local and I ended uo losing money. Extremely disappointing evening.
          Comment
          • Peregrine Stoop
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-23-09
            • 869

            #6
            yeehaaa! forget arbz/middlez
            go for it like you mean it
            Comment
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