Question with LIVE Betting

[Firefox14]

I had a question about a situation yesterday where I was betting live. Various bets were brought forth between each play, but one was rather intriguing. Just before the Packers received the ball, the prop looked as such:

How many yards will Green Bay acquire on the next drive?

1. Under 20 (+110)
2. 20-39 (+255)
3. 40+ (+198)

Something of this nature, but I'm positive all were +

So what I did was bet one unit on two bets (#2 and #3)

Unfortunately, my intuition failed as usual, and I lost two units. Was this the appropriate thing to do and does anyone else have thoughts on this situation and/or if LIVE betting is a good/bad idea? Anything helps. Thanks.

[tomcowley]

Why would you do that? What do you think the fair prices were, and why?

[sharpcat]

Book had an 8.55% theoretical hold it is almost impossible that more than 1 bet would have value.

[Firefox14]

Why would you do that? What do you think the fair prices were, and why?

I'm not sure what you're asking.... I know it was probably a crap shoot, but I figured by betting two bets, if I were to hit 1 out of the 3, I would be making a small profit; that is, unless it hit the option I didn't pick. For example, if I hit bet #2 and get +255, this would make up for my other unit loss. I guess the prices seemed pretty fair, but maybe you could explain what you mean by fair?

Sharpcat,

I'm not understanding the 8% theoretical edge either. If you could explain, that would be great, but if not, I understand.

[tomcowley]

I'm not sure what you're asking.... I know it was probably a crap shoot, but I figured by betting two bets, if I were to hit 1 out of the 3, I would be making a small profit; that is, unless it hit the option I didn't pick. For example, if I hit bet #2 and get +255, this would make up for my other unit loss. I guess the prices seemed pretty fair, but maybe you could explain what you mean by fair?

Sharpcat,

I'm not understanding the 8% theoretical edge either. If you could explain, that would be great, but if not, I understand.

Live betting (and betting at all) isn't a good idea for you. If you don't have some idea of how likely the outcome you're betting on is (and some valid reasoning to support that number), and see that you're getting a price that reflects a lower percentage (so that you have some reason to believe that the event will happen more often than the odds say it will), you shouldn't be betting on that event. If you don't have some valid reason to believe 40+ is going to happen more than 33.6%, or that 20-39 is going to happen more than 28.2% you shouldn't be betting them. Please tell me you know where those numbers come from.

(save the nitpick about arbs and hedges, blah blah blah).

[sharpcat]

+110=47.62%
+255=28.17%
+198=33.56%
Sum=109.35%
Hold %=1-(100/109.35)=8.55%

This would reflect the amount of profit the book would make assuming equal action on all bets. On a 3-way line if 1 bet is at a price which is valuable it would mean that the other 2 bets are over priced. With such a high hold % it is extremely unlikely that one of the 3 bets would be so highly mispriced that 2 bets had value.

You are basically arbing your bet but leaving an opportunity for a loss you would need to calculate your expected value to see if this play is valuable. You should learn how to calculate your expected value before making plays like this in the future especially if you intend to bet 2 sides of a 3-way wager with the same book.

[Firefox14]

+110=47.62%
+255=28.17%
+198=33.56%
Sum=109.35%
Hold %=1-(100/109.35)=8.55%

This would reflect the amount of profit the book would make assuming equal action on all bets. On a 3-way line if 1 bet is at a price which is valuable it would mean that the other 2 bets are over priced. With such a high hold % it is extremely unlikely that one of the 3 bets would be so highly mispriced that 2 bets had value.

You are basically arbing your bet but leaving an opportunity for a loss you would need to calculate your expected value to see if this play is valuable. You should learn how to calculate your expected value before making plays like this in the future especially if you intend to bet 2 sides of a 3-way wager with the same book.

Sorry man, I honestly don't understand those figures, but it's all good. All I know is I have a 33% chance to win one bet out of three. That's the extent of my math skills, but I'm sure if I were explained it in detail, I would comprehend the concept. I apologize if my lack of intelligence seems frustrating haha, but I appreciate you breaking it down for me.

[yisman]

I don't think each bet had a 33% shot.

[jgilmartin]

All I know is I have a 33% chance to win one bet out of three.

Just because there are 3 bets, which cover all possibilities, doesn't mean you have a 33% chance to win each bet. It is most likely that the probabilities of the three bets are NOT equal to each other (as indicated by the prices).

[The Bishop]

And people wonder why the US is like 67th in the world at math... Jesus Christ...

[wrongturn]

And people wonder why the US is like 67th in the world at math... Jesus Christ...

Well, the flip side is that, unlike smart Europeans, we are not excluded from books bonus.

[Firefox14]

And people wonder why the US is like 67th in the world at math... Jesus Christ...

LOL, I didn't know we were 67th!!!???