to score in NHL

[Juret]

to get the expected average of goals or assists for a player in NHL, my starting number could be the player's total number of goals so far this season for a "to score" bet. but, since it is not very likely for a player to score more than one goal in the game, do you think my starting number should be the number of games the player scored in instead?

today we have Zetterberg for example. he has scored 10 goals this season, but three of those were a second goal of his in the game. so he has scored in 7 of 31 games. so I could either start with 10/31 or 7/31 and then change it depending on how many goals DET are expected to score in this particular match-up using current odds.

thanks

[mminkovski]

you're looking for an expected average of goals or assists, then you need total goals 10/31
however your bet type is simply "to score", then you need number of scoring games 7/31

[That Foreign Guy]

you're looking for an expected average of goals or assists, then you need total goals 10/31 however your bet type is simply "to score", then you need number of scoring games 7/31

A player's total goals is a much better predictor of his scoring ability than games scored in unless you believe a particular player scoring a second goal is correlated with him scoring a first goal.

Empty netters are an obvious example of this but players can score empty netters as their first goal of the night too so handling them is a separate issue.

[Hanger]

Why not break it down a little further here?

Player gets 20 shifts a game. Player has played 30 games. 15 goals. Player has 600 total shifts Player averages a goal every 40 shifts.

Not sure if something like this would work for the NHL, or what not, just brainstorming here.

[Whitefin14]

Seems like the breakdown by hanger would work. Good thought!

[LegitBet]

Don't forget to factor penalty killing and OT

[MonkeyF0cker]

Google "NHL poisson".

[LegitBet]

Ebook of sandburg Wong anyone ?

[subs]

stanford - lolz.

i'm not scanning you the whole thing either.... seriously, unless you can fix my knee which seems to have ended my footy career much to the delight of my long suffering team.