Hey guys, What do you think about this sample size moving forward?

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  • sneak-a-peak
    SBR MVP
    • 11-07-09
    • 1373

    #1
    Hey guys, What do you think about this sample size moving forward?
    Its in the NBA.

    Past 3 seasons including this current one.

    667-534-27

    55.54%

    Would you play it going forward?

    Or back off in fear of a correction?
  • sneak-a-peak
    SBR MVP
    • 11-07-09
    • 1373

    #2
    Its currently 104-70-5 (59.77%) this season.
    Comment
    • sneak-a-peak
      SBR MVP
      • 11-07-09
      • 1373

      #3
      It does include some 1q and 1h spreads.
      Comment
      • sneak-a-peak
        SBR MVP
        • 11-07-09
        • 1373

        #4
        Oh ya and one other important thing because I know someone will eventually ask.....

        But without going into detail before the start of the 2008 season is non applicable.
        Comment
        • jamesbettor
          SBR Rookie
          • 12-12-10
          • 17

          #5
          Before betting using the plays generated by a model I would make sure that I came up with the model using one set of data and then proceeded to test the model with out of sample data. If the model proved to be profitable when forward testing on out of sample data then I would say it is ready to use for betting.

          I like to use at least 5 seasons of data to create the model and then 5 seasons of out of sample data to forward test it. Some people may prefer more or less. In NBA, NHL and MLB you can probably get away with less due to the large volume of games that get played each season.

          With your 3 seasons of past results, were they obtained using out of sample data? Or did you test your model using the same data that you used to create the model?
          Comment
          • sneak-a-peak
            SBR MVP
            • 11-07-09
            • 1373

            #6
            Originally posted by jamesbettor
            With your 3 seasons of past results, were they obtained using out of sample data? Or did you test your model using the same data that you used to create the model?
            I had a sample of the 2 previous seasons heading into this season.

            So the test run is this season with the 104-70-5 record.

            It started off at one point 80-46-4 so since its gone 24-24-1.
            Comment
            • roasthawg
              SBR MVP
              • 11-09-07
              • 2990

              #7
              Tough to say... I can come up with hundreds of models with similar results that will get crushed going forward. The results look promising but it's all about the criteria used to make the picks.
              Comment
              • sneak-a-peak
                SBR MVP
                • 11-07-09
                • 1373

                #8
                Originally posted by roasthawg
                Tough to say... I can come up with hundreds of models with similar results that will get crushed going forward. The results look promising but it's all about the criteria used to make the picks.
                Ya- thats usually the case and why I have not played it yet but this season has really opened up my eyes and got me thinkin.

                The criteria is kind of unique- probably not what you would normally expect.
                Comment
                • classhandicapper
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 12-05-10
                  • 68

                  #9
                  How do you guys create databases of several years of basketball data to test?
                  Comment
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