Special parlay odds, which has least juice?

[A's Fan]

I have the oppurtunity to bet the following and would like to know which has the lowest juice.

Points awarded for good correct answer.


2 teamers: 2.8:1
3 teamers: 6.5:1
4 teamers 13:1

I believe the answer is the 3 teamers but I am not sure how much juice each is effectively charging.

I used the parlay calculator and it said the 2 teamer is the best but I dont think its correct, is it?

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/parlay-calculator.aspx

it says 2 teamers Premium Paid Over Mathematical Odds: Total vig charged on parlay=5%
3 teamers= 6.25%
4 teamers= 12.5%

However, under my calculations I found out the %'s I needed to hit for each. So wouldnt the answer be betting 3 teamers, please help.

0.263157895 (51.3%) 2 teamers
0.133333333 (51.1%) 3 teamers
0.0714285714 (51.7%) 4 teamers

[A's Fan]

After thinking about this, could it be both answers are right? Like I only need to hit 51.1% of my picks on 3 teamers so its the lowest % needed, but its one extra pick. Where as the 2 teamers, I have to hit 51.3% but its one less pick to be "juiced" on?

[subs]

hi A's - like i said i do not know the answers for sure but i believe that the more teams in the parlay the more juice. parlays amplify your edge (or lack of edge). so if you are +EV on your picks then to parlay them will give you more EV, but more variance in the short term (which is what you are looking for).

as for your other thread about making 5 wagers, could you bet the same team 5 different ways, or even combine this with a big fav in a parlay. so ML, then -0.5, +0.5, +1, -1. does this count as 5 plays? probably not.

i hope some1 with more knowledge can help you because i am not that person.

[Cookie Monster]

The formula is (odds + 1) ^(1/t) = decimal odds per game.

3.8 ^ 0.5 = 1.949 = -105.3
7.5 ^ 0.333 = 1.957 = -104.4
14 ^0.25 = 1.934 = -107

So, the bes odds are in the 3 teamer.

[arwar]

i would submit that the 2 team is better. let me elaborate. assume a $10 wager

on a 2 team parlay there are 4 possible outcomes (one winner). the book collects 40 & pays out 2.8*10 = 28 + the original 10.
the book makes $2 so the vig 2/40 =.05 or 5%

on a 3 team parlay there are 8 possible outcomes. likewise the book collects 80 & pays out 6.5*10 = 65 + the original 10.
the book make $5 so the vig is 5/80 =.0625 or 6.25%

just my opinion

[skrtelfan]

i would submit that the 2 team is better. let me elaborate. assume a $10 wager

on a 2 team parlay there are 4 possible outcomes (one winner). the book collects 40 & pays out 2.8*10 = 28 + the original 10.
the book makes $2 so the vig 2/40 =.05 or 5%

on a 3 team parlay there are 8 possible outcomes. likewise the book collects 80 & pays out 6.5*10 = 65 + the original 10.
the book make $5 so the vig is 5/80 =.0625 or 6.25%

just my opinion

How can you have an "opinion" about a statement of fact, nevermind one that was correctly answered in the post above yours???

The problem with your "opinion" is that you can't compare a $10 2 teamer with a $10 3 teamer because the $10 3 teamer is essentially a larger bet. Your calculations are no different than saying "What's a better bet, an $11 bet at -110 or a $26.25 bet at -105?" and concluding that the former is a better bet because the book's vig is $1 vs $1.25.

[arwar]

the original question was which play had the lowest juice, which is independent of the size of the wager. it's not the amount of the vig, it's the amount of the vig divided by the total of equal wagers on each proposition in the play (4 on 2 teamers, 8 on 3 teamers, 16 on 4 teamers, etc). i didn't mention the 4 teamer - but to calculate it using the $10 example - the bet pool would be $160 -the payout is 130+10, so the vig% is 20/160 = 0.125%. note that these numbers are in exact agreement with Ganch's parlay calculator - as stated in the original post. so if you want to argue with someone try Ganchrow. and it's still my opinion