Over Under Longest Touchdown Prop

[prop]

Hoping someone here is willing to throw me a bone with a hint at how this prop is priced. This was my idea, and seems more complex than it is worth though I suppose if tracking it regularly and keeping a database it might work out.

Take for example: Jets @ Patriots this week

Longest TD in game over/under 44.5 (Bet365)
o44.5 -125
u44.5 -115

Season data:

Jets 4 of 28 Tds scored were over 44.5 yards (14.29%)
Jets 0 of 28 TDs scored were over 44.5 yards
Patriots 6 of 42 TDs socred were over 44.5 yards (14.29%)
Patriots 1 of 31 Tds allowed were over 44.5 yards

I figured a good method would be to get a predicted score from the no-vig market price on spread + total. Then back out scoring stats to predict how many TDs were expected for each team using there FG to TD data on season. Once I had this taking more weight for how many they score, and less weight for how many they give up, looking for balance there, and then determining how many of them are likely to be over 44.5 yard touchdowns.

Once I have a price here. I take an average for all teams on season (or probably more accurately the past few years) weighting the line for if all teams were equal with the line of the historical results to come up with a range.

Bet365 seems to be putting these online faster than everyone else (granted 40 cent line) with some unique prices, others come out later with much different lines. Trying to follow this I'm stumped because the methods I've tried to use rarely come close to the actual lines offered.

I'm generally pretty good at figuring this stuff out, but this prop I don't understand. Wondering if anyone can give me a clue how Bookmakers go about pricing these, any tips appreciated.

Fwiw, while anyone could say this at random, my reason for wanting to learn this isn't to compete on these props at betting outs. I do lines for a partner taking bets from a bunch of oil-rig guys in Canada who bet on crazy stuff. If we can offer them lines much different than other sites: example if sites are offering longest TD 41 to 44 yards and we create lines on 36 and 57 we can build in larger edges and they're none the wiser. These guys bet them to, right now we're offering some crazy lines on shots on goal for star hockey players, and have guys bet on coin toss -105 for whatever game they get on TV. This longest TD prop is one I'd love to offer them I just can't figure it out well enough to price off numbers for them.

[Justin7]

It's tough to get a decent sample size using just 2 teams.

Here's a different approach: look at the game total. The game is lined at 45. What is the median longest TD in games totaled 43 to 45? How often do these games hae a TD longer than 44.5 yards?

[smartbets]

Couldnt u use Poisson for this? Just use total offensive plays then td's over 44.5 yards. Then plug into Poisson and compare odds

[prop]

I suspect Poisson, or any similar distribution theory, would be okay for gauging the differences of two ranges, but would be rough. I'll find out.

Where I live I can get cheap help and not really wanting to use a programmer that will have hands on same data and might discover its sale value, I'll have someone here that doesn't speak English or know a thing about American sports add a couple fields to my database for this. I already have all the play by play data for every game but its not in a format i can easily extract length of every TD without spending some time on it.

I appreciate responses and hope can return the small favor later responding in one of your threads or w/e. Thanks again.