Middle Math Question

[smartbets]

Wanted to see if anyone might be able to chime in and tell me if my math is correct on this middle opportunity.

I have a total of 61 and a total of 64 for the Boise State game that I want to middle.

I used a push chart for ncaaf to see what percent of the time the final score would be 61, 62, 63, or 64. Wondering if the estimates in the push chart might even be higher for these 4 numbers since they are near the total, as compared to other games that don't have a total this high.

Assuming that this total game score would land on either61, 62, 63, and 64 2.3 percent of the time, I figure a $100 middle would have a +EV of $4.72 everytime I wagered on it over the long run.So if it lands on 62 or 63, I would win both sides of the middle. If it lands on 61 or 64 I would win one side and push one side of the middle.

So:
4.6% of the time I would win $9.20
4.6% of the time I would win $4.60
90.8% of the time I would lose $9.08

$9.20 + $4.60 + ($9.08) = $4.72

so EV would be positive for this given that I am expected to win $4.72 everytime I make this wager over the long run, right?

thanks

[Blax0r]

The calculation seems sound, but could you reconfirm that 61, 62, 63, 64 each have a 2.3 percent chance of occurring? Based on your wording, the chance to hit any of those totals is 2.3 (ie, 2.3 is the total of the individual probabilities).

[smartbets]

The calculation seems sound, but could you reconfirm that 61, 62, 63, 64 each have a 2.3 percent chance of occurring? Based on your wording, the chance to hit any of those totals is 2.3 (ie, 2.3 is the total of the individual probabilities).

yes, each has a 2.3% chance of being the final total for the game - so i added 62 and 63 and added 61 and 64 since they each have the same percent chance of hitting and each have the same payout if that is what the final total is

[Blax0r]

Looks good then, +EV given those assumptions.

[benjy]

That's the result I would arrive at as well.