betting nfl pinnacle lines, but with 5% back on losses=+ev?

**subs** · 12-04-10, 06:00 AM

hi - ok i am no expert at all, but if you are betting -104 on a 50% outcome:

50% of the time you will win 100 and 50% you will lose 104 so for every 100 you bet you expect to lose $2 (not $4).

so if you bet $1000 you should lose $20. you get back 5% of this that will be $1. so no you will be $19 down. you get a 5% rebate on loses NOT on total amount wagered.

sorry buddy. go to politics sub forum, find the charity thread and donate the points there.

**A's Fan** · 12-04-10, 06:30 AM

thanks, donation made to charity thread, can anyone else confirm/deny above is correct

**A's Fan** · 12-04-10, 06:57 AM

the poster "takeit" responded to me with this, so now Im really unsure, anyone else know for sure one way or another?

"let's take a look at it the long way.

if you made 100 bets at $100 per bet at -104, just flipping a coin you'd expect to win 50 of them and lose 50 of them. so after 100 bets you'd win $5000 (50 x $100) and lose $5200 (50 x -$104) for a net loss of -$200. you wagered $10,400.

if you get back 5% of your losses (including juice?) then you'd get back $260. so it looks like you'd be up $60 over 100 wagers for a net profit of 60c per wager. .60c/$104=.00576% or a little over 1/2 of 1% positive ev."

**Jontheman** · 12-04-10, 08:06 AM

Both are correct with the assumptions given. The 2nd calculation assumes you only place one bet per week so that you get a full 5% back on every losing bet.

This highlights that the situation you described relies on variance (big winning and losing weeks) to use the rebate to the maximum during the losing weeks to create +EV. Obviously you can't get much higher variance in a week than lumping onto one bet- you're either a big winner or a big loser.

**Justin7** · 12-04-10, 12:16 PM

If you have a loss back promotion, volatility is good. If you make 1 bet a week, you are probably +EV. If you are getting good odds on parlays, this is even better. Again, make just one parlay a week.

**subs** · 12-04-10, 01:11 PM

Hi A's - my bad buddy did not think of making just 1 big play a week. obviously this is a smart thing to do and will make you +EV. If you would like me to return your donation just PM me and i will be happy to do that. both TakeIt and I made some mistakes with the maths....

for a net loss of -$200

if you get back 5% of your losses (including juice?) then you'd get back $260

but 5% of -$200 is not $260 it is $10. so you would be down $190.

looks like maxing out on a small parlay is the way to go. as Justin7 said make sure you are getting fair parlay odds. you can check this in the tools, in the tank.

BOL

**xyz** · 12-04-10, 02:47 PM

I thought most places only do cashback on net losses. Doesn't make sense to give cashback for a long term winner.

**A's Fan** · 12-04-10, 02:56 PM

Thanks for all the input, but I found out one more crucial detail. You must make 5 plays a week in order to qualify. Making 5 plays, is there a method to make this +ev? All odds are exactly the same as pinnacle, (lines, parlays etc)

Also I am not talking about handicapping (I can factor that in later, but just looking at each game in a 50/50 view)

**Justin7** · 12-04-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by A's Fan

Thanks for all the input, but I found out one more crucial detail. You must make 5 plays a week in order to qualify. Making 5 plays, is there a method to make this +ev? All odds are exactly the same as pinnacle, (lines, parlays etc)

Also I am not talking about handicapping (I can factor that in later, but just looking at each game in a 50/50 view)

With 5 plays a week... how are the parlay odds? This makes it much tougher. It won't be blindly +EV if you are betting 5 sides or totals each week (but it will lower their edge).

**A's Fan** · 12-05-10, 07:18 AM

The parlay odds is the best part about it.

2.8:1 on 2 teamers
6.5:1 on 3 teamers
13:1 on 4 teamers

If I lose on the week, I get back 5% of all losses, i.e. If im down $1000 on the week Id get back $50. Lets say I win $2k in week two i get all of that. Week 3 I lose $500 i get $25 back still even though Id be an overall winner that doesnt matter.

This is good for all of december, which is the best way to attack this?, is it betting 3 teamers(am i getting the best odds on those) and with these special parlay odds am I now blindly +ev with the 5% I get back on weekly losses?

More points to be awarded here for answers thanks

**Justin7** · 12-05-10, 01:00 PM

What if you bet the exact same 3-teamer 5 times? Ok, that's asking for headaches.

What is your EV if you
pick 4 teams
round robin by 3s
bet a small (close to 0) amount on a 4-teamer?