Half point calculator for second half

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  • xyz
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-14-08
    • 521

    #1
    Half point calculator for second half
    The current half point calculator on SBR does not do second halves. Intuitively, half point for the second half should be worth more than half point for the full game, for both spread and total. Are there some ways to approximate the worth of half point for the second half using the existing half point calculator for the full game? I just want a ball park number to make a quick decision if a second half bet is +EV or not. Thank you very much for your help.
  • IrishTim
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-23-09
    • 983

    #2
    It's pretty tricky because you also need to take into account the score of the game. For example, a 2H spread of -0.5 will have a different valuation if the score is tied at half than if one team is up by 10, even if the full game spreads and totals are the same. I think you'll need something a bit more dynamic than a simple chart for this type of thing.
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    • Pancho sanza
      SBR Sharp
      • 10-18-07
      • 386

      #3
      Originally posted by xyz
      The current half point calculator on SBR does not do second halves. Intuitively, half point for the second half should be worth more than half point for the full game, for both spread and total. Are there some ways to approximate the worth of half point for the second half using the existing half point calculator for the full game? I just want a ball park number to make a quick decision if a second half bet is +EV or not. Thank you very much for your help.
      Correct, it is worth more in almost all cases, but like Tim says, watch the new net price on the game, example, taking +7 or +6.5 on a team leading by 7 at the half is essentially the same thing.

      I use 10 cents, even though thats high, its a nice quick way to make substitutions/choices.

      So say I set my minimum play as say +7 -110 and its not available, if +6.5 +100 is out there, ill take it in most cases.

      If +7.5 -120 is also out there, id take that over +7 -110 etc.
      Comment
      • wrongturn
        SBR MVP
        • 06-06-06
        • 2228

        #4
        10 cents is probably close. Be aware some dead numbers, like +7.5, +7 and +6.5 are same for team leading 7 at half.
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        • RickySteve
          Restricted User
          • 01-31-06
          • 3415

          #5
          10c for a live 7 in a half??? Let me know when you open your book.
          Comment
          • Pancho sanza
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-18-07
            • 386

            #6
            Originally posted by RickySteve
            10c for a live 7 in a half??? Let me know when you open your book.
            I wouldn't want to book the sharpest poster on the forum, so you wouldn't be allowed in if I opened a book.
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            • durito
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-03-06
              • 13173

              #7
              what sport are we talking?
              Comment
              • RickySteve
                Restricted User
                • 01-31-06
                • 3415

                #8
                Oh, I assumed football, sorry. I don't know beans about basketball.
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                • xyz
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 02-14-08
                  • 521

                  #9
                  I am interested in both football and basketball 2nd half wagers. I don't discriminate, anywhere I can find +EV is all the same to me. I see the discussion so far has been on football. What about basketball 2nd half half point valuation? Thanks for the insight.
                  Comment
                  • donjuan
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-29-07
                    • 3993

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RickySteve
                    10c for a live 7 in a half??? Let me know when you open your book.
                    I'll let you buy off the 7 for 10c, but only games with a the 2nd half fav trailing by 7 at the half.*

                    *Or is that what you mean by live?
                    Comment
                    • benjy
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-19-09
                      • 2158

                      #11
                      Watching out for dead values is good advice.

                      In football one has to be careful too as two point conversions are more likely and skew typical values.

                      In basketball, not only is the tie dead but the values that give a one point win (on either side) need to be discounted as well.
                      Comment
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