Was this the dumbest fukkin bet ever?

**unusialsusp5** · 11-29-10, 08:45 PM

no. just bet the team you like and hope you guessed right.

**Shelton** · 11-29-10, 08:50 PM

luck is always good to have on ur side

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-29-10, 10:26 PM

no one has never done nothing like this before

**wrongturn** · 11-30-10, 01:02 AM

It is slightly -ev, about -0.24%.

**LegitBet** · 11-30-10, 01:17 AM

Pick a game that is up live,
And try to hedge

**IrishTim** · 11-30-10, 01:40 AM

An economist would call this type of thing statistical arbitrage. If you line shop like crazy, you can find profitable opportunities. It's not very hard to figure out the EV if you have reliable push rates. The harder part is making sure your push frequencies are accurate and I'm becoming more convinced that the traditional method of using small historical landing area % isn't the best way to do obtain these.

**Salamander** · 11-30-10, 03:51 AM

Another person discovering a Polish middle makes those in Warsaw and Krakow very proud.

**dwaechte** · 11-30-10, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

So I was getting ready to bet on Kentucky on Saturday and was line shopping, as is my want. Compared lines and got the following idea:

Lost Straight Wager
Kentucky 14 vs Tennessee U 24 Kentucky +125

11/27/2010 - 09:30 AMCFB [152] TENNESSEE U -2-110
Score: KENTUCKY(14) - TENNESSEE U(24)WIN
First ticket from Carib and the second from BetJam.

Before placing the wagers I checked the half point calculator to check it. NCAAF line of 2 ending in a 1 point win for the fave (only way to lose both wagers) was 1.77%. It landed on 2 at 2.48% chance of losing half of my wager, but the smaller on.

So I figured a 95%+ chance of winning 3.3% of my wagered amount.

Any input is welcome. It is not a true Arb obviously, but at -110/+125, thought it was worth the shot. Of course, not a long term strategy. Anyone ever done anything like this before?

If it's not a good long term strategy, it's not a good short one either.

**Robber** · 11-30-10, 11:47 AM

definitely -ev

chance of landing on tenn -1 or -2 may not be small but its enough to more than negate the small profit (-110/+125) you'd make otherwise

**Robber** · 11-30-10, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by dwaechte

If it's not a good long term strategy, it's not a good short one either.

that goes for anything -expected value

**Thremp** · 11-30-10, 02:27 PM

This is in the wrong forum.

**statnerds** · 11-30-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by IrishTim

An economist would call this type of thing statistical arbitrage. If you line shop like crazy, you can find profitable opportunities. It's not very hard to figure out the EV if you have reliable push rates. The harder part is making sure your push frequencies are accurate and I'm becoming more convinced that the traditional method of using small historical landing area % isn't the best way to do obtain these.

1. I failed to check the size of the "small historical landing area %". Never considered that. Good point sir.

2. It only became an idea because of the Books I use all had +115, and then here comes Carib with +125. So it was a choice and a decision I made in about 1 minute and 30 seconds.

Perhaps a better question would have been at what price would it become +EV, if there is a realistic one?

1.5 -110
ML +125?

**Bluehorseshoe** · 11-30-10, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Peregrine Stoop

no one has never done nothing like this before

**u21c3f6** · 11-30-10, 09:46 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

1. I failed to check the size of the "small historical landing area %". Never considered that. Good point sir.

2. It only became an idea because of the Books I use all had +115, and then here comes Carib with +125. So it was a choice and a decision I made in about 1 minute and 30 seconds.

Perhaps a better question would have been at what price would it become +EV, if there is a realistic one?

1.5 -110
ML +125?

Assuming that your push rates are accurate, I calculate that your wager was actually +EV (approx 0.23%).

I don't do this. I do wager on smaller edges with higher win %'s but the problem here (and with many of these kind of wagers) is because the edge is so small, despite the extremely high win %, you cannot wager a significant portion of your bankroll on it. From the financial world, it is like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Joe.

**statnerds** · 12-01-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by u21c3f6

Assuming that your push rates are accurate, I calculate that your wager was actually +EV (approx 0.23%).

I don't do this. I do wager on smaller edges with higher win %'s but the problem here (and with many of these kind of wagers) is because the edge is so small, despite the extremely high win %, you cannot wager a significant portion of your bankroll on it. From the financial world, it is like picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Joe.

Thanks for the advice Joe.

I really don't see this ever happening again even from an opportunity standpoint. I cannot figure why Carib would have the ML on a Line with 2 at +125 on the dog.

Well I do, but I mean it is going to be rare to ever see a ML that high on such a short dog again.

**goblinburner** · 12-02-10, 02:29 AM

I can tell you my dumbest bet ever it was last evening when i had a teaser nc state +15*lost vs wisconsin Purdue +4½ *win vs Virginia Tech Memphis Grizzlies +11½ *win vs Atlanta Hawks Miami Heat -5½ *win vs Detroit Pistons
Utah Jazz -2*win vs Indiana Pacers i just do a multi chance or round robin maybe i win less but ill win something with those 4/5 games