I have been checking some databases and looking at the numbers and the percentages and payouts involved with playing middles in pointspread and over/under wagers. From the research I have done, which could be considered somewhat "rough" and/or slightly inaccurate, it appears that in the NBA the final margin against the spread for all games is plus or minus 1 (+/-1) for all
games versus widely available lines happens about 10 percent of the time.
In other words, if you are able to play a middle with Team A at +4 and Team B at -6, you are getting a bet at 20/1 odds if it lands on 5, and 10/1 odds if it lands on 4 or if it lands on 6. Without knowing how to figure out the true odds, it seems that overall this is a wager at 13.5 to 1 odds, so this wager would have a good positive expected value, given you are getting +13.5
odds(roughly) on an event that happens 10 percent of the time, or odds of 10 to 1.
Now there are also scenarios like Team A at -4 and Team B at +5.5, which gives 20/1 odds if it lands on 5, and 10 to 1 odds if it lands on 4, which seems to be 15 to 1 odds.
My question is, when is there a big enough "middle" to make it a positive expected value play? Do I only want to do it if there are two "options" for the bet, i.e. it lands on one number and both sides hit, or one number makes both sides hirt, but one or two other numbers cause a push?
I am new to the math of sports betting and figuring out expected value for my wagers(obviously) so I was wondering if anyone on here had a good formula for figuring it out in the NBA, NFL, and College hoops and college football.
I would assume push charts would need to be incorporated at some point, especially for key numbers in football. Was alaso wondering how this would work for totals too.
Thanks!
games versus widely available lines happens about 10 percent of the time.
In other words, if you are able to play a middle with Team A at +4 and Team B at -6, you are getting a bet at 20/1 odds if it lands on 5, and 10/1 odds if it lands on 4 or if it lands on 6. Without knowing how to figure out the true odds, it seems that overall this is a wager at 13.5 to 1 odds, so this wager would have a good positive expected value, given you are getting +13.5
odds(roughly) on an event that happens 10 percent of the time, or odds of 10 to 1.
Now there are also scenarios like Team A at -4 and Team B at +5.5, which gives 20/1 odds if it lands on 5, and 10 to 1 odds if it lands on 4, which seems to be 15 to 1 odds.
My question is, when is there a big enough "middle" to make it a positive expected value play? Do I only want to do it if there are two "options" for the bet, i.e. it lands on one number and both sides hit, or one number makes both sides hirt, but one or two other numbers cause a push?
I am new to the math of sports betting and figuring out expected value for my wagers(obviously) so I was wondering if anyone on here had a good formula for figuring it out in the NBA, NFL, and College hoops and college football.
I would assume push charts would need to be incorporated at some point, especially for key numbers in football. Was alaso wondering how this would work for totals too.
Thanks!
