Tell me if this idea would work...

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Pocket Passer
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-20-10
    • 196

    #1
    Tell me if this idea would work...
    Here is my idea:

    First a few assumptions:

    #1 - The oddsmakers in Vegas are smart and set the lines well
    #2 - The public, in general, loses

    If we can all agree on those two, here is my plan:

    In basketball, I compare the opening lines to what they currently read. If any line moves at least 2 or more points, I bet the team whose line improved 2+ points.

    Using that theory, I'm getting more points than the "smart" oddsmakers felt the line should be set at, and going against the "losing" public who I assume bet the other team hard enough to move the spread.

    I'm sure I'm missing something here. I went 2-0 with this theory yesterday, winning with UTEP and Virginia.

    What are your guys thoughts? I'm sure it's flawed somewhere.
  • jgilmartin
    SBR MVP
    • 03-31-09
    • 1119

    #2
    Wouldn't recommend that. Closing lines are, as a whole, nearer to the actual probability of the event occurring than opening lines are (in the major markets at least).

    This is because sharp money has a much greater effect on moving the line than public (square) money does.
    Last edited by jgilmartin; 11-25-10, 12:31 AM. Reason: Added the last bit
    Comment
    • kisado
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-09-08
      • 519

      #3
      Yes. Sharp money is what moves the lines, not square money. A sharp player dropping 5k on a line has a greater effect on line movement, if any, than a bunch of squares dropping a combined 20k. Also, lines moving by 2 pts in basketball are not usually a result of one side being pounded, but rather, a key player is out or some other information that you may or may not possess.
      Comment
      • Raynor21
        SBR Sharp
        • 06-23-09
        • 422

        #4
        I never put too much stock in line movement. If I see the public is pounding one side of the line and the line is moving the opposite way, I'll generally make a small play on it but I never use it in my handicapping theory.
        Comment
        • Pocket Passer
          SBR High Roller
          • 10-20-10
          • 196

          #5
          Thanks for the info guys, but you've given me a few more questions:

          1. What is the easiest way to see which side of a game the public is pounding?
          2. If the public is pounding one way, what factors would make the line move the other way, making it a sharp bet to make?
          Comment
          • subs
            SBR MVP
            • 04-30-10
            • 1412

            #6
            1/ from what i have read you can not "know" how much money is going where. sbr odds has some % # after the icons. there is also a site called show me the odds which does not have a delay, will give you some info if you deposit to books through them. i hear that there are some premium services also. they give you a % of bets going to each side but do not tell you how much. (these figures are not considered particularly accurate).
            2/ sharp money or anything that normally makes a line move ie new information.
            Comment
            • santelom
              SBR High Roller
              • 09-15-10
              • 221

              #7
              I don' agree with
              #2 assumption
              The public, in general, loses
              Comment
              • alling
                SBR MVP
                • 05-13-10
                • 1405

                #8
                If you follow smart money/fade public money you might get 55%. Good but not great.
                Comment
                • Pocket Passer
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-20-10
                  • 196

                  #9
                  Might as well throw in the towel, I guess
                  Comment
                  • GoIrish682
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 11-05-10
                    • 246

                    #10
                    i like your assumptions...i think key is quantifying games.
                    Comment
                    • Pocket Passer
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 10-20-10
                      • 196

                      #11
                      Originally posted by GoIrish682
                      i like your assumptions...i think key is quantifying games.
                      What do you mean? Limiting the number of games I bet?
                      Comment
                      • pedro803
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 01-02-10
                        • 309

                        #12
                        maybe he means quantifying which side the sharps are on and which side the public is on and quantifying which games are no plays -- that is, maybe there isn't necessarily always a sharp side and a public side
                        Comment
                        • BChrisB
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-19-10
                          • 709

                          #13
                          I remember reading an article about this same exact thing a few years back (I can't remember for the life of me where I read it though.)

                          Anyways, it was about underrated dogs who had public opinion against them (as determined by line moves.) Make a long story short, the theory sounded really good however, I think when it was all said and done, this produced less than 46% (or something like that.)

                          Would love to hear others comment on this.
                          Comment
                          • Pokerjoe
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 04-17-09
                            • 704

                            #14
                            I think the best way to figure out where the squares are betting is at SIA, in two ways: their leans, and their betting percentages.

                            OP, the problem with your assumption is that, though lines are fairly well set at the open, where they have moved, there was error.
                            Comment
                            • GoIrish682
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 11-05-10
                              • 246

                              #15
                              i like the thinking here...op should be appluaded!
                              Comment
                              • statnerds
                                SBR MVP
                                • 09-23-09
                                • 4047

                                #16
                                Originally posted by alling
                                If you follow smart money/fade public money you might get 55%. Good but not great.

                                55% long term is world class.

                                Good luck finding any capper that can perform at that high of a level over 500+ plays.
                                Comment
                                • DevilCheese
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 07-18-09
                                  • 485

                                  #17
                                  I'm not sure this would work since opening lines are not always efficient, but you also have to take into account new data since the line was made such as injuries, suspensions, etc.
                                  Comment
                                  • xyz
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-14-08
                                    • 521

                                    #18
                                    For this to work, you would need to know when the market had over adjusted itself with the new information.
                                    Comment
                                    • Toples
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 12-18-07
                                      • 275

                                      #19
                                      Closing lines are harder to beat, you should watch line movement and bet % and then decide,
                                      you'll probably save half a point on average, and that can add 2-3% to your hit rate...
                                      Comment
                                      • bozeman
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-11-09
                                        • 2162

                                        #20
                                        as far as i know on the success of line bettors there is only one handicapping service ultrasports(usually posted by ckent in service plays section), which is by the way successful only at certain sports (ncaab and few=only few others). they give out their picks within an hour prior to the games. And they are really sharp there. you could backtrack their picks history and use sbrforum to see how lines moved at different bookies those days to get the idea how they identified sharp moves. I tailed their ncaab picks last year, but nothing alse since they were the sharpest. Although i don't use this system myself, cause it requires lots of time and research, i know good percentages can be made there (70 i guess though most of the sbrposters lauph about it). you gotta research a lot though. checking lines history, etc
                                        Comment
                                        • GoIrish682
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 11-05-10
                                          • 246

                                          #21
                                          how do you know what money si sharp and what is square that bookies take in?
                                          Comment
                                          SBR Contests
                                          Collapse
                                          Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                          Collapse
                                          Working...