Clear something up for me...

**subs** · 11-24-10, 11:18 PM

well i'm no expert at all but i think that he meant that the push % (the % that a particular number at the spread will push) for 4 and 5 (but not the 3,6,7,10 which are key numbers) are very low so loosing a little bit of EV (expected value) is worth it (in his opinion) to be able to play reverse line moves.

you will have to work out for yourself if this is a winning strategy. def be better if you could get the number B4 it moves at slower books.

BOL

**skrtelfan** · 11-25-10, 12:23 AM

You're right and the other guy is using a typical square thought process. The square thought is that "the sharp money is on the favorite and it doesn't matter what line you get as long as you have the right side." The problem is that the 5 hits about 4% of the time, so if whatever sharp group moved the line from -4.5 to -5.5 thought the -4.5 was a 56% play, which would be quite strong, they'd still perceive your -5.5 as a loser. The "liking the play because of the line move" only applies if you're able to find a stale -4.5.

I have a square friend who always thinks like that. he'll tell me how he loves some NBA team at +6 because he saw the line in the morning newspaper was +8, so that means "the big movers" like that side. I've tried explaining to him for years that the "big movers" thing doesn't apply because he can't bet using the newspaper's morning line but he never gets it, and his logic is basically like the guy who replied to you.

**skrtelfan** · 11-25-10, 12:25 AM

Originally posted by subs

well i'm no expert at all but i think that he meant that the push % (the % that a particular number at the spread will push) for 4 and 5 (but not the 3,6,7,10 which are key numbers) are very low so loosing a little bit of EV (expected value) is worth it (in his opinion) to be able to play reverse line moves

I think you misread his post but he had an NBA play, not an NFL one. And in the NFL 4 isn't dead. It pushes almost as often as the 6.

**Jive** · 11-25-10, 12:37 AM

Let me take a stab at it.

You liked a team that opened up at -4.5. Apparently (I'm basing all of this on the reply you got so I'm assuming some situations) a majority of the money was being shown as being placed on the other team*, yet the line moved as if the majority of the money was being placed on the side you liked. This often indicates that the the people the books fear the most (consistent long term winners, aka "sharps") were on the side you were on. So when the line moved -from 4.5 to -5 while supposedly more bets were being placed on the other team, this is a good sign for your bet.

When the poster said the line lost value, he meant that you were getting a significantly weaker position at -5.5 than at -4.5 or -5. Full points in basketball are very important and decrease your chances of winning more than most people realize.

(*I in no way AT ALL even begin to trust any website that claims to know public betting percentages in terms of money, but many people do.)

**Jive** · 11-25-10, 12:47 AM

PS. I never make a bet based on line movement or because some supposed sharps are on a given side. I won't be influenced into a bet because of line movement. However, I will be scared off of bets because of significant line movement as it indicates someone probably knows something that I don't.

For example, my numbers said San Francisco +2.5 or better would be a good play tonight. The line opened at +4.5 which made me want to take the bet. I let it sit for a while and it quickly jumped to +7.5. That told me someone knew something that I didn't, so even though I could have gotten the game at 5 points better than I was willing to bet it, I stayed away.

Thankfully, as SF got destroyed.

**Pocket Passer** · 11-25-10, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Jive

PS. I never make a bet based on line movement or because some supposed sharps are on a given side. I won't be influenced into a bet because of line movement. However, I will be scared off of bets because of significant line movement as it indicates someone probably knows something that I don't.

For example, my numbers said San Francisco +2.5 or better would be a good play tonight. The line opened at +4.5 which made me want to take the bet. I let it sit for a while and it quickly jumped to +7.5. That told me someone knew something that I didn't, so even though I could have gotten the game at 5 points better than I was willing to bet it, I stayed away.

Thankfully, as SF got destroyed.

Interesting, and I lost on SF. I saw a lot of value at +7 and figured I was going against the public, which is a good thing.

Perhaps I will just stay away from sports betting, lol

**Pokerjoe** · 11-27-10, 01:08 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

You're right and the other guy is using a typical square thought process. The square thought is that "the sharp money is on the favorite and it doesn't matter what line you get as long as you have the right side." The problem is that the 5 hits about 4% of the time, so if whatever sharp group moved the line from -4.5 to -5.5 thought the -4.5 was a 56% play, which would be quite strong, they'd still perceive your -5.5 as a loser. The "liking the play because of the line move" only applies if you're able to find a stale -4.5.

I have a square friend who always thinks like that. he'll tell me how he loves some NBA team at +6 because he saw the line in the morning newspaper was +8, so that means "the big movers" like that side. I've tried explaining to him for years that the "big movers" thing doesn't apply because he can't bet using the newspaper's morning line but he never gets it, and his logic is basically like the guy who replied to you.

This sums it up. NH.

**Pocket Passer** · 11-27-10, 12:22 PM

I guess I'm starting to figure it out, thanks.