are futures better for noobs?

**jds07v** · 11-17-10, 02:34 PM

I manage for my brother. Play the same plays I do, just for less money. I am ok at this, but I am by no means a mathematical expert. I flat bet, because I honestly do not like changing my stake, I have done it before on "stronger plays" when I did not accurately calculate my edge. I think a game is a game, and for any recreational or new bettor, that seems the way to go. It minimized volatility which is a good thing because we all go through cold and hot streaks.

I think its best for new bettors to find a niche. I have not been good at NBA or NFL, but am doing very well prop betting. I know the college sports inside and out, and that is where I make my money when baseball season is over. If you don't know it, don't bet it.

**trixtrix** · 11-17-10, 05:55 PM

best advice for -ev players are to not bet

**subs** · 11-17-10, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by trixtrix

best advice for -ev players are to not bet

they are not gamblers - just folk who need the money. prolly never bet on anything except a sweep stake at work.

thanks jds07v - good luck buddy.

**Flight** · 11-17-10, 06:13 PM

Sports betting futures generally have larger vigorish than standard bets and therefore worse -EV.

In sports, you are investing in a -4.5% market.

I recommend stock market investing right now. An average investor will make +5%. Some investors will see returns above 10%.

My advice: invest their money in any balanced market fund, wait 12 months, cash out, and tell your friends you were betting sports the entire time. You will look both sexy and smart.

**Flight** · 11-17-10, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by subs

they are not gamblers - just folk who need the money.

If they need money, gambling is the last thing they should do. Not trying to be pessimistic, just trying to give you realistic expectations. If you gamble, you should expect to lose your money.

**subs** · 11-17-10, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by Flight

My advice: invest their money in any balanced market fund, wait 12 months, cash out, and tell your friends you were betting sports the entire time. You will look both sexy and smart.

I recommend stock market investing right now. An average investor will make +5%. Some investors will see returns above 10%

ok listen closely, i am about to give valuable info.

banks in Australia are paying 6.25% (paid monthly) on an on-line saver with no strings, no minimum amount and access anytime with no penalties. if you can get 1 then get an HSBC premier account. then open an AUD account and get free currency exchange to AUD (at the spot rate!). then phone an australian bank and they will give you an account. + they are some of the safest banks in the world cos they are very well regulated. if all you are getting is 5% - 10% with risk, you are in the wrong place. especially as the fed is gonna print more money soon.

but yea, thanks for this advice about expecting to lose. apart from sign up bonuses (for which they think i am sexy and smart already and are now buying nice christmas presents for their kids) i have decided only to explain the basics of futures betting, as i understand them, and leave everything to them. it is too easy to break up good friendships.

BOL every1

**goucla** · 11-17-10, 08:57 PM

lol vwry funny

**goucla** · 11-17-10, 08:57 PM

i would say start with dogs

**OMGRandyJackson** · 11-17-10, 09:31 PM

Did i read this wrong? Banks in AUS are offering 6.something% interest per month to bank account holders? wtf?

**subs** · 11-17-10, 09:45 PM

^^^ no per year but it is calculated and paid monthly. what's the rate in the US now?

the trick is not lose too much on the exchange but IMO the $ is going down again so it may be worth the exchange. HSBC premier gives you free exchange because you can open an account in USD and AUD and transfer between the 2. just trying to say forget the stock market for 5%.

**Wrecktangle** · 11-18-10, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by subs

ok listen closely, i am about to give valuable info.

banks in Australia are paying 6.25% (paid monthly) on an on-line saver with no strings, no minimum amount and access anytime with no penalties. if you can get 1 then get an HSBC premier account. then open an AUD account and get free currency exchange to AUD (at the spot rate!). then phone an australian bank and they will give you an account. + they are some of the safest banks in the world cos they are very well regulated. if all you are getting is 5% - 10% with risk, you are in the wrong place. especially as the fed is gonna print more money soon.

but yea, thanks for this advice about expecting to lose. apart from sign up bonuses (for which they think i am sexy and smart already and are now buying nice christmas presents for their kids) i have decided only to explain the basics of futures betting, as i understand them, and leave everything to them. it is too easy to break up good friendships.

BOL every1

Right.

Now you are into exchange rates, in a currency and economy you do not understand (Aussie). Most of these guys don't understand what is happening with their own currency, much less the what's happening in Kanga-land.

**subs** · 11-18-10, 03:09 PM

i live in kanga land - lol

the economy here is kicking ass. Australia lives and dies on mining and china is spending much of the $ it takes from the states here. it is really buying up all the natural resources with the failing US$ before it is worth less and less.

just my take.

really smart and funny vid about the fed.

**subs** · 11-18-10, 03:22 PM

i moved to kanga land about a year ago. probably the best choice i ever made.

the economy here is kicking. oz lives on natural resources and mining and china is using all its USD buying up all the resources it can slowly but steadily. billions and billions of your USD is flowing here. while over there you print money and devalue your currency further.

this a fantastic vid very funny

**Wrecktangle** · 11-19-10, 08:35 AM

Subs, one post of the vid is enough for most of us here in the Tank.

Great vid, tho.

**Wrecktangle** · 11-19-10, 08:47 AM

One other point. When I was in Europe, I did a fair amount of currently trading because of the way I was paid (paid in US Dollars, while stationed in Europe). At first it was a massive pain since I seemed to get screwed in virtually every swing of the dollar, but once I started to chart currency moves and trending them, I managed to walk away with another $100,000+ in profit from playing both markets. But my point is, I had to become very involved in economic trends in both the US and The German economy (we had the German D-Mark, then the dominant currency at the time; the Euro is a different animal these days).

Admittedly these guys in the Tank are smarter than the average punter, certainly considering the sheep we have here at SBR, but they will not be able to do this unless they start reading Kanga Newspapers every day and trying to learn the currency market.

**JustinBieber** · 11-19-10, 09:32 AM

If you can beat Forex then why are you wasting your time with sports betting?

**subs** · 11-19-10, 06:41 PM

sorry bout the double post thing.

day trading Forex is tough but long term buying or selling i been doing ok. if your going to sit on it for a while then i think its probably safe to sell a currency that is being printed and probably mismanaged. anyway probably time to get this stuff out of the tank.

**Pokerjoe** · 11-20-10, 05:14 AM

The vid is not good. QE is exactly what the US should be doing right now, only even more so that we have been. The idea that it's for banana republics is ignorant. Our debt is denominated in our own currency. That means we have the power. It's like playing poker with a wild card. That's a great, great advantage. We just need to have the balls to play it. We can snap our fingers and have our national deficit erased, all the while strenthening the dollar for exports and job creations. The losers? People invested, not in the economy, but in Treasuries. The winners? Everyone unemployed. The breakevens? Everyone invested in stocks, real estate, etc. Don't complain about QE; buy gold, sit tight, be happy.

As to OP: yes, futures bets are great for rec players. Perfect, in fact. They can get a season of rooting interest at very little cost. To those who point out the large vig of futures bets, understand that, without the weekly churn, the wagers are actually excellent. Including the fun of gambling as having value, the wagers can be +EV. To say otherwise is to say that all entertainment expenditures are -EV.

**JOHON8** · 11-20-10, 05:28 AM

Take a team youfind value in, bet on them then hedge the hell out of them to make it impossible for you to lose anything if that team does well.

Otherwise if you are -ev, just stick to other ways of making money, we know you like the thrill of betting on sports, but think about realistically making money.

**subs** · 11-20-10, 06:17 AM

Hi Pokerjoe - i think that you are right about some things. the US needs to devalue and start actually making things that it can sell. the days of just collecting tribute from around the empire for its corporations and hoping for some trickle down are winding down.

Printing money is fine but the people of the US should not be paying the fed for money (which is mostly a giant ponzi scheme). created on a computer this money does not exist but is paid for in full by US citizens + interest. the private fed bank should be abolished and the control of money should not be for profit.

the corruption of wasting money to goldman sachs etc. and how both sides of the political scene do not mind perpetuating this for decades. in recent history only JFK spoke out against this.

"If the American people knew tonight, exactly how the monetary and banking system worked, there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning."
- Abraham Lincoln

Kennedy apparently reasoned that by returning to the Constitution, which states that only Congress shall coin and regulate money, the soaring national debt could be reduced by not paying interest to the bankers of the Federal Reserve System, who print paper money then loan it to the government at interest. a bigger scam has never been perpetrated.

**subs** · 11-20-10, 06:29 AM

JOHN8 - i can go to almost any league and pick the top 4 teams line shop for the best prices. and be looking at 15 -30%. then if i absolutely have to i will hedge out for break even-ish (never had to yet). good strategy for noobs and can get it all done in an afternoon.

what am i missing here? must be something.

**Prof Bungletree** · 11-20-10, 03:56 PM

I think they may be a decent idea for new players for a slightly different reason. Of all the people I know who have lost considerable money at this (including myself at one point) it was less about -EV plays, and more about chasing, star systems, and other bizarre and painful money management techniques.

Having money locked up in a long term play gives you something to watch, without being sucked into being an action junkie at the outset. The Forex / Day Trading v. Standard Stock Investing analogy is apt, though frankly following a team for a season for one wager isn't as much fun!