How did I do handicapping this NBA prop?

[scdavis0]

The prop in question is Deron Williams o/u 29.5 pts+asts for tonight's game at Orlando. I used a derivative of the game spread/total and Poisson. Deron scores very nearly 2 points per score (ie breaking down 3 pointers, 2 pointers, and a pair of free throws). He also gets very nearly 1 assist per score. He's averaging about 20 points per game, ie 10 scores per game, and about 10 assists per game. The 29.5 line could be modified to be something around 19.5 scores+asts, which is right at his averages for this year.

The Jazz are averaging just over 104 ppg this season, and Deron is about 3 ppg above his career average. In tonight's game the Jazz have a median expected point total of only about 91.5 points (11.5 pt dogs/194.5 total). I feel that at the very least his score expectation could be scaled down from 10 scores to 10*(91.5/104) = 8.8 scores. The assists would probably be scaled down a bit too. But let's be conservative and say 18.8 scores + asts vs an over/under 19.5.

The Poisson calculator gives us about -137 as a fair line for 18.8 expectation vs a line of 19.5. I bet this at -115 at a local book that I use that copies greek prop lines. Since then the line moved against me to -140/+110. So I bet it again. Am I missing something here or do I have a good bet?

[JustinBieber]

Your calculations are most likely correct, I wouldn't care if a prop line moved against me.

[That Foreign Guy]

Most props unless something fundamental changed (spread, total, player news) I'm more consider increasing my exposure if the line moves against me than sweating it.

Your analysis seems solid.

[SparJMU]

Is handicapping a prop really that simple? Shouldn't you have researched the individual matchups and Deron Williams historical performance against Orlando? Shouldn't the total handicapped number change drastically depending on whether Williams is being covered by a strong defender like Rajon Rondo versus an undersized defender like Jameer Nelson?

[JustinBieber]

No because prop lines are horrendous.

[SparJMU]

In all seriousness, should handicapping the prop be 100% statistical the way scdavis did it? Or should there be many other factors that come into play?

[Flight]

Use as many factors as you want. The more information you use the better your estimate of the line will be.

Personally I only use a few factors and just look for props that are off by a large amount. If a quick analysis tells you something should be -200 and it is offered at -115, do you really need to add more factors?

[Poogs]

Can you use poisson for points in an nba game? I thought poisson was only good for stats that increase one ata a time?

[JustinBieber]

No you can't use poisson for points. But in the case of things like player assists+points where lines will be horrible if you normalise 2pt, 3pt and FT's for the player then you can use it in a poisson.

The results wont be 100% accurate of course but it should be good enough to beat a line which has had roughly about 1 minutes thought gone into it with a $200 maximum or w/e it is.

[Poogs]

On the same subject, can anyone help and see if I did this correctly?

Figuring the odds of a todd heap touchdown last night:

This year hes played in 8 games and has scored 3 TD's. So 3/8 = .375 times baltimores team total according to pinny 21 divided by their avg points per game of 21.9 equals .3595

Putting that into the poisson calculator with the Proposition at .5 I get a moneyline of +-231.

Is that correct? Im confident I have the formula right, but is using only 8 games ok? Last year he scored 8 td's in 16 games, so it seems like he is on pace. Is it ok to not look into atlantas pass defense? I figured any abnormality would be reflected in the team total. Thanks for any input.

[Shonner]

On the same subject, can anyone help and see if I did this correctly?

Figuring the odds of a todd heap touchdown last night:

This year hes played in 8 games and has scored 3 TD's. So 3/8 = .375 times baltimores team total according to pinny 21 divided by their avg points per game of 21.9 equals .3595

Putting that into the poisson calculator with the Proposition at .5 I get a moneyline of +-231.

Is that correct? Im confident I have the formula right, but is using only 8 games ok? Last year he scored 8 td's in 16 games, so it seems like he is on pace. Is it ok to not look into atlantas pass defense? I figured any abnormality would be reflected in the team total. Thanks for any input.

I don't care what anyone says about this, players are more likely to score against certain defenses, certain conditions (turf/grass), there is much more that goes into capping than a simple conclusion like you reached.

do you know what type of defense he is playing against? do they let up td's against TE's? are they better in run or pass defense?

capping is much more difficult than your calculation

[JustinBieber]

I think his idea here is to make money though, not sift through vast amounts of data to find random variations.

[Shonner]

I think his idea here is to make money though, not sift through vast amounts of data to find random variations.

I'm not gonna comment on this. Just don't say anything anymore.

[JustinBieber]

Looks like a comment to me. I assume you know if im writing it from turf or grass though.

[Indecent]

I don't care what anyone says about this, players are more likely to score against certain defenses, certain conditions (turf/grass), there is much more that goes into capping than a simple conclusion like you reached.

do you know what type of defense he is playing against? do they let up td's against TE's? are they better in run or pass defense?

capping is much more difficult than your calculation

Have you actually made money betting props, or are you speaking in theoretical terms.

How many props can you price a day? Does it justify spending so much time with low limits?

[Shonner]

Looks like a comment to me. I assume you know if im writing it from turf or grass though.

you clearly know nothing about handicapping nfl, that's def. a factor. more pts scored on turf. look up the #"s if you don't believe me.

oh wait, who cares, ur here to win money, not crunch #'s, even tho u r in a handicapping forum

[JustinBieber]

You're right I don't know anything about handicapping at all.

[Shonner]

Have you actually made money betting props, or are you speaking in theoretical terms.

How many props can you price a day? Does it justify spending so much time with low limits?

There is huge juice with props, if you are going to bet them, you have to do it right.

I don't bet them often.

I tell you what - why don't you ask Justin7 about your philosophy that you can just use a few simple variables to draw a conclusion that a play is +EV.

The question of the thread was asking if the prop was properly handicapped - regardless of how much time it would take - the answer is simply NO, it wasn't.

This isn't rocket science.

But yeah, seek Justin's opinion, he's big on props, and see what he says. Something tells me he's not running a few simple #'s that can be calculated in less than a minute and throwing a lot of money on it

[sharpcat]

There is huge juice with props, if you are going to bet them, you have to do it right.

I don't bet them often.

I tell you what - why don't you ask Justin7 about your philosophy that you can just use a few simple variables to draw a conclusion that a play is +EV.

The question of the thread was asking if the prop was properly handicapped - regardless of how much time it would take - the answer is simply NO, it wasn't.

This isn't rocket science.

But yeah, seek Justin's opinion, he's big on props, and see what he says. Something tells me he's not running a few simple #'s that can be calculated in less than a minute and throwing a lot of money on it

Actually if you read Justins book, these are a few of the techniques that he suggested in his prop betting section where he also suggested that this is the best place for an aspiring pro with a small bankroll to start out.

I blame Justins book for the recent flood of prop betting threads which have been started here in the last 2 months.

[JustinBieber]

lol selfowned

[RickySteve]

Betting props is a great way to get thrown out of books before you make any real money.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Did you bet the under??

That's how you should have bet that?

Ps.. I dunno if it won.. Did it win?

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Actually ricky, betting props will get you walking out of a book broke b4 they throw you out, because they are always -115/-115 at best.

[varolopez]

Did anybody tried this calculations?

[JustinBieber]

Actually ricky, betting props will get you walking out of a book broke b4 they throw you out, because they are always -115/-115 at best.

And when I thought misinformation couldn't get any worse in this thread

[newbee]

I second that statement