Inefficient NFL markets?

**sideloaded** · 11-08-10, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by brumbies

If you scroll up, you would have seen my reply to jgilmartin. I asked him to list me games over the past few weeks where the spread truly mattered at all.

Of course once in a blue moon you will have games with spreads that matter, but for the most part, it all boils down to whether you can pick a winner. You can have all the best numbers, but what's the point if they all lose?

I remembered I had Denver+3.5 against the Jets the other week. I made sure to get the best price and number. I ended up losing by the hook.

If getting the best numbers truly matter, why not simply bet on whichever 2nd half NBA team that has a better spread as compared to pregame? For eg, Lakers -10. They were down 15 at the half. 2nd half spread is -7. That makes the Lakers as +8 dogs. So isn't that value? Why can't I win simply by blind betting on such scenarios? I clearly had the best numbers.

You're trolling right?

**Wrecktangle** · 11-09-10, 06:54 AM

When you find you are talking to folks who think spreads don't matter, it is time to move on to another thread.

**wrongturn** · 11-09-10, 10:01 AM

Shouldn't you be happy if you got Bengals +6.5 during the day, or feel lousy if you got the +5.5???

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-09-10, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by wrongturn

Shouldn't you be happy if you got Bengals +6.5 during the day, or feel lousy if you got the +5.5???

yep... last night was a perfect example of spreads mattering. I was lucky enough to hit a middle. Those getting the best lines either way and buying points when appropriate were winners ATS last night. The rest...

**Pancho sanza** · 11-09-10, 01:25 PM

Are people really debating whether spreads matter, in the think tank of all places?

**IrishTim** · 11-09-10, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by Wrecktangle

When you find you are talking to folks who think spreads don't matter, it is time to move on to another thread.

Originally posted by Pancho sanza

Are people really debating whether spreads matter, in the think tank of all places?

Unbelievable.

**skrtelfan** · 11-10-10, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by wrongturn

Shouldn't you be happy if you got Bengals +6.5 during the day, or feel lousy if you got the +5.5???

And what about if you chose +6 +100 instead of +6.5 -110? Right choice, wrong result.

**IrishTim** · 11-11-10, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

And what about if you chose +6 +100 instead of +6.5 -110? Right choice, wrong result.

You mean a one-game sample doesn't tell us all we need to know?

**skrtelfan** · 11-11-10, 03:09 AM

Nah, I usually require 5 games before I can evaluate the worth of a key number. Maybe 7 if I'm feeling conservative.

**statnerds** · 11-12-10, 10:01 PM

Originally posted by Thremp

I don't think anyone believes in strong form efficiency in any market.

how many Warren Buffets are there?

**Peregrine Stoop** · 11-13-10, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by skrtelfan

Nah, I usually require 5 games before I can evaluate the worth of a key number. Maybe 7 if I'm feeling conservative.

this is the funniest troll I've read in a long time

**Ruifgalmeida** · 11-15-10, 06:17 AM

[quote=skrtelfan;7367843]Nah, I usually require 5 games before I can evaluate the worth of a key number. Maybe 7 if I'm feeling conservative.[/quote

are you serious

**trixtrix** · 11-15-10, 08:18 AM

Originally posted by brumbies

It does not matter whether you had the best number.

For example, whether you had -8.5 or -10 Hawks, you still lose. And whether you had +8.5 or +10 Hawks, you still win.

Whether you had -3.5 or -6 Jets, you still lose. And whether you had +3.5 or +6 Lions, you still win.

Etc etc.

in which case i assume you're making it big these days by selling pts on both sides of pinny drop down, and arbbing the polish middle.

**dinaro7** · 11-15-10, 06:47 PM

i think pts matters if u dont give me yours