I have a question if anyone has free time

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  • Salmon Steak
    SBR MVP
    • 03-05-10
    • 2110

    #1
    I have a question if anyone has free time
    Let me start by saying my backround is in biology not statistics. With that being said, I am using a poisson equation. My question is how do you calculate value as it relates to the line? I am getting numbers like .4557 and .6533. If I am correct these would be predicted 45.57% and 65.33% win rates respectively. Maybe I terming these values incorrectly . If so I am applying the values incorrectly also. Anyway...

    So let's say you have:

    Team A 45% (+130) v Team B 65% (-145)

    Team C 50% (+120) v Team D 55% (-110)

    So how do you calculate value of a side in relation to the line presented by the books? If this is unclear or incorrect I can try again but my math terminology might not be up to par with some of yours. Thanks
  • djiddish98
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-13-09
    • 345

    #2
    You can convert the line into a percentage.

    > + 100 = 100/(100+odds)

    < + 100 = odds / (100 + odds)

    or you can just calculate your edge by taking your prob and multiplying by the decimal conversion of the odds you're allowed to be on (and then subtract 1).
    Comment
    • Salmon Steak
      SBR MVP
      • 03-05-10
      • 2110

      #3
      Got it thank you very much. Best of luck to you.
      Comment
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