Is there a potential correlated wager opportunity in the World Series prices?

[jbrent95]

I have the following choices:

Texas to win series: -145

Texas Wins 4-0: +1215
Texas Wins 4-1: +525
Texas Wins 4-2: +465
Texas Wins 4-3: +450

The resulting break even winning percentage for each choice is:

Texas to win series: -145 ----> 59.2%

Texas Wins 4-0: +1215 ----> 7.6%
Texas Wins 4-1: +525 -----> 16.0%
Texas Wins 4-2: +465 -----> 17.7%
Texas Wins 4-3: +450 -----> 18.2%

If I take a unit each the correct series, is that the same as taking the series at -400? I don't think so because the payout is +150 to +915 for each scenario.

If I added the %BE for each of the correct series scenarios: 7.6%+16.0%+17.7%+18.2% = 59.5% ----> which translates to -146.8 ML. This seems like a useless calculations as I would be risking 4 units if all four scenarios are lost.

Unfortunately, between work getting busy and my newborn at home, I can barely concentrate on math at the moment.


I would greatly appreciate some insight into the math.

[u21c3f6]

You have the correct answer in your post. The games won odds are -146.8 so you are slightly better off just taking Texas -145. If you have some valid reason to believe that at least one of the games won scenarios are underpriced, then you could set-up your wagers for a better return than -145.

For example, if you believe that the line for the 4-0 scenario is too low and you eliminate it from your wagers, your new line for Texas to win would be approx -108. Of course the reduction from -145 to -108 is because you are taking on the risk of a 4-0 win by Texas.

Joe.

[jbrent95]

A weighted average perhaps:

Line Winnings
Texas Wins 4-0: +1215 ----> 7.6% x 915 = 69.58
Texas Wins 4-1: +525 -----> 16.0% x 225 = 36.00
Texas Wins 4-2: +465 -----> 17.7% x 165 = 29.20
Texas Wins 4-3: +450 -----> 18.2% x 150 = 27.27
___________________Sum: 59.5% __Sum = 162.06


I would be winning an average of 162.06 while risking 400 which equals risking 246.83 to win 100.

[jbrent95]

I actually have 4 units on Texas -118 for the series. My local posted the number the night of the last SF/PHI game, and I jumped on it. I confirmed the wager today when he paid me for last week's winnings. It currently sits at -145