back to basics MLB SIDES

[accuscoresucks]

basic structure for MLB SIDES

1.elimination of any pre season,and post season game
2.team record does not matter pitching is 70% of why a game is won or loss
3.pitcher being bet on must have well eastablished ip stats and must not be higher than a era of [4.55],also must have atleast 30% more ip than opposing teams starting ptcher
4.opposing teams pitcher shall have a era of [5.35] or higher to qualify
5.eliminate a money line for the game above -165[no bet]

[rake922]

pretty good but why don't you edit that and include some stucture on wager size and bankroll management

[20Four7]

I also think you have to look at how the team is doing. Baseball seems more streaky than any other sport. If a team is in the middle of a 4 game winning streak I will not play against them (I may not bet them but won't go against them). Same thing with losing streaks, let the streak happen before you start playing on.

[LT Profits]

basic structure for MLB SIDES

1.elimination of any pre season,and post season game
2.team record does not matter pitching is 70% of why a game is won or loss
3.pitcher being bet on must have well eastablished ip stats and must not be higher than a era of [4.55],also must have atleast 30% more ip than opposing teams starting ptcher
4.opposing teams pitcher shall have a era of [5.35] or higher to qualify
5.eliminate a money line for the game above -165[no bet]

That model leaves out THE single-most important component when handicapping baseball games - BULLPEN ERA!

I'd rather bet a team with a mediocre strater and a good bullpen than a team with a great starter and a crappy pen, and that approach usually gets great value too since the pen is undervalued in the line.

[accuscoresucks]

yes ltprofits i agree with you but i tend not to go that far into it,any team at any time can win.if the team blows so bad i have to go that far ill pass on it.
here is my last years record for mlb i think this was my last day of betting mlb for the year
MLB Plays 10/20
Record to Date
710-589-18+97.10 units

MLB Postseason Record to Date
8-5 +2.90 units

Cle Indians (+120) 2 units

[accuscoresucks]

pretty good but why don't you edit that and include some stucture on wager size and bankroll management

good question but thats not my place,plenty of that info on here already.to each his own.in mlb a single wager can be anywere from 1/2%-1.5% on a wager depending on the amount of bets going for the day.i never exceed more than 6% of my bankroll on any given day,for that to happen i would have to have atleast 8 bets riding preferably more

[donjuan]

Using ERA is a good way to go broke.

[20Four7]

I think WHIP is far more important than using ERA.

[accuscoresucks]

yes,and yes when betting totals both pitchers eras must be over [5.00]. min. ,also i forgot exactly the combined whip formula i think its 20+ [the 2 criterea met] take all line totals 11 or less,a very successfull season with totals to be had..

[LT Profits]

Using ERA is a good way to go broke.

Not true with bullpens. I have a few bullpen ERA systems that have been profitable over the last 10 years.

Now I am not saying that WHIP isn't as good or better. It is just that I've never tracked my bullpen systems by WHIP, and it would be impossible to backtrack this because I would need to know bullpen WHIPs GOING INTO the games, as full season bullpen WHIPS are useless for back-tracking.

Maybe I will track using both ERA and WHIP starting this season. I will start this on May 1.

Regardless, whichever method you prefer, I would still put a lot more wieght on bullpens than starters, as the betting line is about 80% based on starting pitching while the bullpens are undervalued. That was actually the point I was trying to make with my first post in this thread.

[LT Profits]

but i tend not to go that far into it

But you are leaving out the most important stat, IMO. If I had a choice, I would ignore starters before I ignore bullpens. In actuality, I ignore neither, but put much more weight on pens.

[LT Profits]

MLB Plays 10/20
Record to Date
710-589-18+97.10 units

MLB Postseason Record to Date
8-5 +2.90 units

Outstanding work there! But I bet your results would have been even better if you added just one more simple two-part rule:

6a. Don't bet against a team that is in top 10 in bullpen ERA unless you are getting +140 or better.
6b. Don't bet on a team that is in bottom 10 in bullpen ERA unless you are getting +165 or better.

[20Four7]

I believe last summer your sig read "If all you do is handicap bullpens you have to win in MLB" or something similiar.

I would agree with you that starting pitching is probably2/3 to 3/4 of the line.

[LT Profits]

Good memory 20Four7!

[Munson15]

Reminds me of the Stoffo rules. Not even close to the same, but I remember using the qualifiers to get ML dogs. Do you say the record you had last year was exclusively due to this system?

[accuscoresucks]

no about 35% of my plays were toatals,and another 20% or mabye less were teams that were statisticially even taking dog lines of +125 or more

[donjuan]

Not true with bullpens. I have a few bullpen ERA systems that have been profitable over the last 10 years.

Now I am not saying that WHIP isn't as good or better. It is just that I've never tracked my bullpen systems by WHIP, and it would be impossible to backtrack this because I would need to know bullpen WHIPs GOING INTO the games, as full season bullpen WHIPS are useless for back-tracking.

Maybe I will track using both ERA and WHIP starting this season. I will start this on May 1.

Regardless, whichever method you prefer, I would still put a lot more wieght on bullpens than starters, as the betting line is about 80% based on starting pitching while the bullpens are undervalued. That was actually the point I was trying to make with my first post in this thread.

You may be correct that bullpens are undervalued by the market, but I'd use dERA long before I'd use ERA.

[20Four7]

no about 35% of my plays were toatals,and another 20% or mabye less were teams that were statisticially even taking dog lines of +125 or more

So you are saying about 45% of your plays were using this method. What you have posted should at least get some players thinking about what is important in handicapping bases.

[matskralc]

You may be correct that bullpens are undervalued by the market, but I'd use dERA long before I'd use ERA.

Still have to account for the defense behind the pitcher in some manner. dERA is the better predictor of the pitcher's future performance. But the opposing pitcher isn't the only variable the offense is facing. I'm not certain of the best way to account for the defense, but using ERA may actually be one way.

[accuscoresucks]

pretty good but why don't you edit that and include some stucture on wager size and bankroll management

ill give it a shot then to help you guys out

these figures are .appox. not exact this is a guideline to ideas one may feel free to improve on sharing,disscuss


semi 50%,75% kelly-cri
say you have a 5k bankroll over the next month you want to risk 1k[20%] of that bankroll
every time you hit a winning day,start proccess over[10 day process][ex.% .div. by # bets=% daily bankroll]
------day1-day2--day3--day4--day5
full kelly 10---20---40----80---160
75%/---7.5---15--30----60---120
50%----5-----10--20----40----80
based on the figures above you would risk $387 over a 10 day cycle regardless of the amount of bets[allowed daily bankroll .div. bets] times 387 by 3[1 month]=$1161 which is a little over 20% of total bankroll allowing one to max reward while minimizing the risk factor

[Thremp]

Still have to account for the defense behind the pitcher in some manner. dERA is the better predictor of the pitcher's future performance. But the opposing pitcher isn't the only variable the offense is facing. I'm not certain of the best way to account for the defense, but using ERA may actually be one way.

Umm... ERA isn't a good way to capture this either. There are huge single season fluctuations with fielding so things like UZR and plus/minus aren't really predictive (This especially affects younger players who stand to improve significantly.)