betting over the long haul

[That Foreign Guy]

Kelly staking is very risky. It's a form of chasing since you are placing different amount of money on each game. Lets say $1000 on the game with the highest probability and maybe $100 on the one with the lowest probability and $500 on the one with medium probability. What happens if they all lose? Your bankroll will take a huge hit(-$1600) as compared to if you flat bet where the most you will lose is 3units + juice.

How much is "a unit" in your example?

To have the same amount at risk on these three games it would be $533 so you'd still be down $1600 and you'd have bet $533 on what was very close to a coinflip (the $100 game) and only bet $533 on a game where you have a massive edge. This is the real recipe for disaster.

Also, if events happen at the same time you shouldn't be betting as much on each one as you would if they were one after the other so Kelly would actually reduce your total loss in this situation compared to flat betting.

[Sawyer]

Kelly Kamikaze criterion sucks..

[yak merchant]

Kelly Kamikaze criterion sucks..

No actually what sucks is the degenerates' ability to come anywhere close to calculating their actual edge.

[Sawyer]

I'm confident with myself when it comes to calculate my actual edge. You can check my record if you like, LoL.

You gotta look on the long term. Other professionals in this industry I know don't use Kelly either. But of course, there may be cappers who have succes with Kelly. Everyone has a different style/way/strategy you know.

[yak merchant]

I think you took my post the wrong way. I'm not saying you should use it (almost all would be wise not too), and I'm definitely not questioning your record. I'm just saying there is nothing inherently sucky about Kelly (nor wrong for that matter). It's just an optmization function. The math is good. If you knew your edge within a point or two you'd be on a beach somewhere retired. Problem is profitable systems are exploited until the edge erodes. Therefore even the best systems will eventually have a problem determining the most important input into Kelly. There are plenty of problems with Kelly if the inputs are even slightly wrong (see Ziemba's paper in Willmott http://www.wilmott.com/pdfs/050316_ziemba.pdf ) The biggest problem is if your true edge is 55% and you think it's 65% you will be broke (actually you never go broke you'll just be betting $1.00) before you know it.

[paw]

All Top gamblers that I know that are playing in the 20 grand a game range ALL FLAT WAGER.

At the end of the day sports wagering any way you cut it is a 50/50 prop Period.

This bullshit with a game that is 20 units vs 5 units is just that Bullshit. Now with that being said there are a few guys whom might wager in a sense that a stronger play will be maybe an 1/2 to 1 unit greater then the orignal 1 unit bet. That style seems to work very well also with very EXP Cappers.

However these jerk-offs with all the Hyped up wagering patterns in the end it doesnt work.

In the End you still have to Win ?? No wagering system without winners in the long haul will make you profit.

Flat wagering over a loging period of time has not shown to be any worse then any type of wagering systems out-there ?

Ohh I forgot the 3 line labby ? Yeh right. That shit dont work either.

Stick to Basics and in the long run you can come out ahead.

paw