Using stdev and mean to determine win probability

[losingmyshirt]

I have the standard deviaition and mean for two sets of data and would like to simply determine how often the value for teamA will be greater than the value for teamB. The data seems to indicate a normal distribution. I know I could calculate a bunch of probabilities for individual values and build a monte carlo simulation model but is there another simplier way to go about it? My old brain is failing me and I have forgotten nearly all of my stats knowledge from my academic days. If you don't want to spell it out for me too thats fine, just a point in the right direction would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

[Data]

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/methdesc.html#corrgauss

[Sportslover]

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/methdesc.html#corrgauss

Data, does this method take into account that if the difference between the 2 teams' scores remains the same, the winning percentage is different with a lower points total than it is with a larger points total?

[Data]

Data, does this method take into account that if the difference between the 2 teams' scores remains the same, the winning percentage is different with a lower points total than it is with a larger points total?

No, this method does not take total into account. It is applied on a different level. It may help calculating the expected total.

[Flight]

This method is an application of a z-score, a powerful statistical measure. Be careful with sample size though. Remember that all statistics grow in proportion to the square root of sample size. The method may be more potent if normalized:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_score

I would recommend comparing this method to the pythagorean method, and then comparing both of those to market closers for a thousand games.