What do you think about fading random trends

[rake922]

There's a ton of examples like this every single day:

The over is 19-8 in the Milwaukee Bucks last 27 Saturday games.


Would somebody actually see that and say "oh wow, I should pound the over"

[Data]

I think that fading is tiny bit less profitable than following these trends, where the difference in favor of following comes from less then 100% certainty that the trend is random.

[The HG]

It's hard to tell whether a trend like that is moving the line inappropriately without having a baseline fundamentals-based idea of what the line should be. But if you had that, you wouldn't need to go looking for trends to fade in the first place.

Still, it's always good to keep in mind that trends which are more due to variance and not something fundamental do pop up, and sometimes people do notice them and act on them.

I wouldn't include the idea of trend-fading as part of the science of sports capping, but it could be included to a certain degree at times in the art of sports capping.

[SBR Lou]

What I like to do is fade myself. I'll just sit down and make a few selections with my normal convoluted reasoning and then physically pretend I'm going to wager those games and switch them at the very last second. Profit.

[rake922]

What I like to do is fade myself. I'll just sit down and make a few selections with my normal convoluted reasoning and then physically pretend I'm going to wager those games and switch them at the very last second. Profit.

Do you really do that?

[chandler1981]

Rake,
I dont necessarily play or fade trends. I cap the game using stats and then I look at the trends. It hardly ever makes my decision for me, but if my capping result follows the trend I feel better about it than if I were against it. Basically, the trend is a trend for a reason. But, every game is a different scenerio. I never look strictly at a trend and say "well, Team A has covered 6 straight so I am going against them or for them". Hope this helps.